Avocados from Mexico. Cherry tomatoes from Canada. Cheap clothes from China’s Shein and Temu. Gasoline at the pump. And even America’s favorite beer.
Economists and market analysts are warning that Americans should brace for higher prices on a raft of everyday goods after President Trump announced 25% tariffs on goods from Mexico and Canada and 10% on imports from China.
And these are just the things that are likely to go up quickly.
Manufacturers have been stocking up on parts and supplies for months in an effort to blunt impact of Trump’s tariffs, but it’s harder to stockpile food and the latest electronics — meaning consumers are likely to see the results soon.
Trump acknowledged that consumers could feel the pain of the tariffs — “maybe” — but said, “it will all be worth it” to stop the flow of illegal drugs and migrants into the US and boost American domestic production.
Experts have also said that the tariffs are going to hit Canada and Mexico in particular much harder. For instance, Canada’s exports to the US make up 18% of Canada’s economy, but American exports north are just 1% of US GDP.
Here are a few categories of products that could see price increases for American consumers.
Food, and not just avocados
Shoppers should brace themselves for higher prices at the grocery aisles given that Mexico and Canada are both the largest suppliers of fruits, vegetables, grain, livestock, meats, and poultry to the US.
The US imports more than 80% of its avocados from Mexico at $3.1 billion, according to the US Agriculture Department, with the price of guacamole expected to shoot up by Super Bowl Sunday.
Canada also happens to be the biggest supplier of cherry tomatoes in the US, as well as maple syrup, with the cost of both expected to rise.
The hit at the supermarkets is expected to hit Americans’ wallets soon — since these things are imported on an ongoing basis.
“You don’t stockpile avocados,” William Reinsch, a former US trade official, told the Associated Press. “You don’t stockpile cut flowers. You don’t stockpile bananas.’’
Beer and liquor
While liquor may often be touted as recession-proof, Chris Carey, a Wells Fargo equity analyst, previously estimated that the cost of popular beers from Mexico could spike by nearly 4.5% as a result of the tariffs.
That would be a huge blow to Americans who love Modelo, which became the best-selling beer in 2023, overtaking Bud Light following the Dylan Mulvaney controversy — with more than $5 billion worth of sales recorded in the US during the 2023-2024 fiscal year.
The US also imports about $537 million worth of Canadian spirits a year, including $202.5 million worth of whisky.
On the flip side, Mexico and Canada are also two of the biggest importers of American booze — and their retaliatory tariffs are likely to hit sales of bourbon and wine.
Gas at the pump
The energy industry is set to take a hit following the White House’s call for a 10% tariff on Canadian crude oil, as America’s northern neighbor serves as the top exporter to the US with more than $97 billion worth of oil and gas imported last year.
John LaForge, of the Wells Fargo Investment Institute, warned that “someone is going to get kind of hurt” over the oil tariff.
A total of 53% of America’s petroleum diet comes from Canada — despite the fact that the US is a net exporter of oil.
“Any way you cut it, you’re looking at higher prices,” LaForge told Reuters.
Pavel Molchanov, an analyst at the Raymond James finance giant, warned that Americans would start to see an average increase of 10 cents a gallon at the pump, would the cost expected to go up from there and differ across states, Market Watch reports.
Trouble at the dealership
Vehicles are also expected to see a surge in prices as America imported $87 billion worth of cars and another $64 billion in parts from Mexico last year, according to the US Commerce Department.
Cars were also the second-largest category of goods the US imported from Canada last year, with the US previously keeping the cost of business down by investing in production plants north and south of the border.
Mary Lovely, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, told CNN the new tariffs could effectively undo all the savings automakers enjoyed, leaving the sector fuming as there’s little recourse other than to raise prices at the consumer’s expense.
Electronics and home appliances
When it comes to the tariffs on China, consumers are likely to see prices increase for electronics, appliances and toys.
China is the top exporter of smartphones, laptops, TVs, gaming consoles and all the parts that comprise them, with Beijing bringing in $146 billion worth of such imports in 2023, according to the International Trade Commission
China’s business accounts for 78% of production of smartphones, 87% of video game consoles and 79% of laptops, according to the trade group the Consumer Technology Association
The iPhone, in particular, looks set for a big hit. Even as other companies have shifted production away from China, more than 95% of iPhones and other Apple products were still assembled in the communist nation as of 2023.
Mexico has also become the second-largest source for electronic products imported into the US, with the southern nation bringing in $103 billion in 2023 and making up nearly one-fifth of America’s total electronics import.
The toy tax
The US also gets more than 75% of all its imported toys from China, according to The Toy Association industry group.
The group called the tariffs “significantly harmful” as it urged its members to contact members of congress to express their concern over the expected blow to the industry.
Jennifer Bergman, the owner of New York City’s West Side Kids said that the tariffs will cause the prices of toys to rise “probably instantly.”
“It would be heartbreaking,” she told CBS News. “It would be a real loss for the community. It would be a real loss for me.
Cheap clothes from China and Lululemon leggings
Since the tariffs have no exemptions, Trump did away with the so-called “de minimis loophole,” which allowed shipments of $800 or less to come into the United States tax-free.
The loophole allowed cheap e-commerce companies like Shein and Temu that ship directly to American consumers to thrive, but it also helped individuals and small businesses save money by relying on knock-off products from China.
Shein CEO Donald Tang declined to say whether or not the tariffs will force his company to raise prices on its popular but ultracheap products during an interview with CNBC last week.
And it’s not just cheap clothes either, fashion blogger Antonio Padilla estimates that the tariffs will hit major clothing stores across the nation.
“For example, Canadian-based brands like Aritzia and LuluLemon will likely see a 25% increase on their items once the new tariffs are implemented,” Padilla told the AP.
And a whopping 99% of all shoes sold in the US are also imported, with more than half coming from China, according to the Footwear Distributors & Retailers of America, which represents Nike and other footwear brands.
A blow to construction
The construction industry is also expected to suffer a blow from the tariffs as nearly a quarter of American steel comes from Canada and another 12% comes from Mexico, according to the American Iron and Steel Institute.
The industry has warned that cutting off Canadian lumber, which accounts for 30% of what the US uses, could worsen the ongoing housing affordability crisis.
Exacerbating those worries are the fact that the components for drywall, lime and gypsum, overwhelmingly come from Mexico, which sent the $4568 million worth of the materials in 2023, according to the National Association of Home Builders.
What comes next
Although US farms have the potential to step up and soften the blow from the tariffs at the grocery store, economists predict that domestic producers will likely increase their prices to match the foreign imports, meaning the cost to the consumer will go up regardless and within days.
Prices could further increase after Canada and Mexico waged their own tariff war on the US in response to Trump.
Canada announced that it plans to levy a 25% tariff on $155 billion worth of US goods, including beer, wine and bourbon, fruits and fruit juices, vegetables, perfume, clothing and shoes.
Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said Trump has yet to respond to his calls over the tariffs, nor has the president responded to his Mexican counterpart Claudia Sheinbaum Pardo, who said she will announce her own retaliatory tariffs soon.
During his first term in office, China retaliated against the tariffs by posing their own import levies on soybeans and pork, which hurt US farmers and forced the Trump administration to spend billions in taxpayer money to compensate Americans for the lost sales and lower prices.
Lee Wicker, the deputy director of the North Carolina Growers Association, said he hopes Trump will provide the safety net again should Canada and Mexico retaliate.
“[We] trust him that he’s going to take care of anybody who’s hurt by the tariffs, and that’s really all that we can ask for,” he told the AP.
With Post wires
