With President Trump back in office, Vladimir Putin sees an opportunity to break his international isolation and rehabilitate his image as a statesman. What Putin desires most is for Trump to help him reassert his stature on the global stage.
To this end, the Russian leader has been carefully flattering Trump, setting the groundwork for a high-profile meeting that could bolster his position both domestically and abroad.
Speaking on Russian television, Putin said, “I can’t help but agree with [Trump] that if his victory had not been stolen in 2020, then maybe there would not have been the crisis in Ukraine that arose in 2022,” referring to Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine that year. Trump has long claimed that the war would have never started under his watch. Putin also referred to Trump as “smart” and “pragmatic” in the middle of an exchange of jabs and ego-stroking.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky responded that Putin was trying to manipulate Trump to achieve his goals. “And in particular, he wants to manipulate the desire of the president of the United States of America to achieve peace. I am confident that no Russian manipulations will succeed anymore,” said Zelensky.
Putin has little choice but to appease Trump. With Russia’s economy teetering on the brink of economic ruin and rampant inflation, Putin is treading carefully to avoid provoking Trump, who has hinted at the possibility of increased sanctions against Russia.
What was initially expected to be a swift Russian victory in Ukraine has instead turned into a prolonged and bloody conflict that has exposed Russia as more of a paper tiger than a true global power. This drawn-out war has not only drained Russia’s resources but also accelerated its decline on the world stage.
Putin has long been obsessed with portraying himself as a strong world leader and restoring Russia’s status as a global superpower. His ambition to reclaim the influence once held by the Soviet Union has been a central theme of his leadership. In a 2005 speech, he famously lamented that the collapse of the Soviet empire was “the greatest geopolitical catastrophe of the century,” reflecting his deep-seated desire to reverse Russia’s post-Cold War decline.
Putin’s imperialistic desires led him to invade Ukraine in 2014 and annex Crimea. He followed up by waging war in Eastern Ukraine and then intervening in the Syrian conflict in 2015. His show of force in Syria demonstrated Russia’s global reach and that the nation’s status as a global superpower was being revived.
For nearly a decade, Putin’s intervention in Syria appeared to be a major success, showcasing Russian influence in the Middle East and reinforcing his image as a strategic mastermind. But this illusion unraveled almost overnight in December, given how quickly the Syrian regime collapsed. What once seemed like a triumph turned into yet another challenge, further straining Russia’s already overextended military and economic capacities, which are tied up in Ukraine. Russia was sent packing as the new Syrian government ended the Russian lease of its Tartous port to add to the humiliation.
On the home front, Putin was also at a loss for words once his “special military operation” backfired, as Ukraine invaded and occupied parts of Russia’s Kursk region last year. To help take back Ukrainian-occupied Kursk, Russia had to enlist the help of North Korean soldiers. Russia has still failed to fully expel the Ukrainians. Meanwhile, Trump reverted to social media trolling to take aim at Russia, remarking that Putin is “not doing so well.”
Russia remains unwilling to negotiate directly with Ukraine and instead seeks talks with America. The Institute for the Study of War noted that “Putin and other Kremlin officials have repeatedly claimed they are willing to negotiate about Ukraine with the United States or other intermediaries but have yet to demonstrate any willingness to negotiate with Ukraine or compromise on Putin’s demands of replacing Zelensky and his government with a pro-Russian puppet regime…”
Trump is also eager to broker a peace deal to end the war in Ukraine, taking a starkly different approach from his predecessor. Unlike former President Biden, who consistently pledged unwavering support for Ukraine and emphasized the principle of “Nothing about Ukraine without Ukraine,” Trump is more inclined to pursue a settlement that prioritizes his own political objectives and views on diplomacy.
Putin likely sees Trump’s eagerness for a deal as an opportunity to push for terms favorable to Russia, even at the expense of Ukrainian sovereignty and security. Above all, Putin craves a direct summit with the U.S., excluding Ukraine, to reinforce his narrative of Russia as a global superpower. Such talks would end his isolation, validate his claim over Ukraine’s sphere of influence and satisfy his desire to project Russia as an imperialist power deserving respect on the world stage.
David Kirichenko is an associate research fellow at the Henry Jackson Society, a London-based think tank.
