KYIV — The Trump White House is missing the obvious: Ukraine is not losing its war against Russia. In fact, it is winning in five tremendous ways that U.S. officials, the European elite and the media alike are failing to see.
A retired American general recently told me in Kyiv, “Ukraine is just going to have to give up a lot — it’s so sad.” He said this with resignation, as if it were inevitable. But, as is so often the case, the simple and clear is often overlooked amid the swirl of events, executive briefings and Elon tweets.
Here are five true and simple narratives, the knowledge of which could change the dynamic for Washington during talks with Russia this week.
1. Kharkiv: Proof that fighting back works. In May 2024, Kharkiv, 30 miles from the Russian border, was under relentless bombardment. The goal? Force citizens to flee so the city could be captured. Suddenly, by June, the attacks had nearly stopped. Why? After months of hesitation, the Biden administration finally answered a clear global plea and allowed Ukraine to use HIMARS to strike Russian missile launch points across the border.
The result? Immediate relief. Kharkiv became safer overnight.
But Washington failed to take note. As officials dozed, Russia adapted, shifting launch points further back. By the end of June, the bombing had resumed, but less intensely. In fact, today, Kharkiv remains a clean, prosperous and low-crime city. It even has traffic jams! The “Kharkiv state of mind” is so powerful that people I know from much safer Lviv are moving there now. Isn’t this proof that standing up to Russia works?
2. The Black Sea Fleet is no more. Russia’s Black Sea Fleet once blockaded Ukraine’s exports while attacking cities from the sea. A 2022 United Nations-backed grain deal allowed shipments but prevented Ukraine from striking back. When that deal collapsed in 2023, Ukraine took matters into its own hands.
Within a year, using domestically produced sea drones, Ukraine destroyed one-third of Russia’s Black Sea fleet. The remaining ships have fled from Sevastopol’s port in Crimea to Russian shores. Today, Ukraine is exporting more grain — over 40 million tons in 2024 — than it did under the U.N. deal. Ukraine, without a conventional navy, put Russia’s mighty fleet on the run. This was a clear strategic win. And if Ukraine were to agree to give up Crimea, why would the Russian navy be allowed to toddle back to Sevastopol?
3. Russia’s third failed winter campaign. For three winters, Moscow has tried — and failed — to break Ukraine by crippling its power grid. Experts predicted a dire situation without power and water, yet as I write from snowy Kyiv, the lights are on, and they have been on for months.
Ukraine didn’t just endure; it adapted and outmaneuvered Russia’s strategy. I suspect this is the real key: Russians learned that Ukrainians can live by candlelight if needed, making these attacks not worth it. That’s not just survival — it’s a victory.
4. Pokrovsk and Kursk: The experts were wrong again. Last August, analysts predicted that Pokrovsk would fall to Russian forces within two weeks. The next target would be the major city of Dnipro.
Six months later, that still hasn’t happened. Thanks to Ukrainian incursions into Russia’s Kursk region, precision drone strikes and, yes, a lot of bloodshed in Donbas, fortress Pokrovsk still stands. Once again, Ukraine has defied predictions and kept Russian forces at bay.
5. Bakhmut 2022: The game-changer. In 2022, Russian forces were taking cities at a terrifying pace. On June 24, Severodonetsk fell. But the next day, Ukraine started using U.S.-supplied HIMARS. Another so-called “red line” was crossed. Everything changed — and no one got nuked.
Precision HIMARS strikes halted Russia’s advance, allowing Ukraine to hold Bakhmut for 10 more months. This wasn’t just a delay; it was a shift in the balance of power, proving that it works to cross Vladimir Putin’s red lines. A well-armed freedom stops tyranny. That lesson is just as true today.
Even senior Pentagon officials likely don’t fully grasp these five truths, which expose Russia’s weaknesses. Unaware of these realities, Team Trump speaks about Ukraine in a helpless way. How can the U.S. negotiate effectively and from strength if it doesn’t understand Ukraine’s strengths?
This might seem hard to believe, but not if you have spent time in Washington’s corridors. So, let’s cut through the noise.
First, when Ukraine fights back, its cities become safer and global commerce more stable. Second, when the U.S. removes restrictions on its use of weapons, Ukraine gains ground. And finally, when Ukraine gets the weapons it needs and crosses Putin’s red lines, Russia retreats.
JP Lindsley reported live from Ukraine every weekday on Chicago’s WGN Radio from 2022 to 2024 and heads Ukrainian Freedom News.
