The coronation is underway for Rep. Byron Donalds (R-Fla.) to become Florida’s 48th governor on Jan. 5, 2027.
Too soon? Not for President Trump, who on Feb. 20 endorsed and anointed Donalds with usual Trumpian flare. “Byron Donalds would be a truly Great and Powerful Governor for Florida and, should he decide to run, will have my Complete and Total Endorsement,” Trump wrote. “RUN, BYRON, RUN!”
Donalds, a three-term congressman from the southwest “Gulf of America” district, announced his intention to run five days later.
Given that the calendar reads March 2025, and Florida’s gubernatorial primary will not be held until Aug. 18, 2026, Donalds may be riding a bit too high a bit too soon. At the very least, Trump’s ultra-early endorsement is eerily abnormal — a blatant attempt to ensure that Donalds will have no serious primary opposition.
Moreover, the need for a Republican victory does not seem to have been part of the calculus in Trump’s super-early endorsement. Florida Democrats’ lack of leaders and potential candidates, combined with the state’s increasingly red tilt, means the Republican nominee should win easily.
Donalds, a New York City-born Black conservative congressman, was unknown to 66 percent of Florida voters before receiving Trump’s endorsement. His most significant political accomplishment by age 46 has been to stay in Trump’s good graces through blind loyalty.
There are three main reasons Donalds has quickly emerged as the GOP’s leading 2026 gubernatorial candidate.
The first is that the governor’s race is about Trump, not Donalds. If Donalds wins, expect Trump to exercise control over his adopted home state, with its third-largest population and immense concentration of wealth.
Starting in 2020, Donalds, then a state representative, launched his successful congressional primary campaign. He described himself as a “Trump-supporting, gun-owning, liberty-loving, pro-life, politically incorrect Black man.”
Still showing off his penchant for political incorrectness, Donalds echoed a cringeworthy Tucker Carlson quote on the occasion of Trump’s inauguration. “Daddy’s back,” he said, in an attempt to describe for a Fox News audience what new Trump administration would be like.
The congressman made his MAGA voters proud at the inaugural parade rally when Trump gave Donalds a priceless political shout-out, saying, “Stand up, Byron, what a future this one has.”
Exactly a month later, Trump endorsed Donalds for governor.
Fortuitously, the congressman represents a safe GOP district. He won his third term with 66.3 percent of the vote, slightly outperforming Trump’s 65 percent over Kamala Harris — a feat worthy of presidential respect.
Nevertheless, were Donalds to win the statehouse but then govern or act disloyal, the president could taunt him over how his early endorsement “made” his career.
Sound familiar? Ironically, that scenario points to the second reason Donalds has great prospects. The 2026 Florida gubernatorial race is about Donald Trump and his continuous revenge campaign against Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) and wife Casey for their “disloyalty” when challenging him for the 2024 presidential nomination, instead of patiently waiting for 2028.
Before and during DeSantis’s disastrous presidential campaign, Trump repeatedly bragged that he was responsible for Ron’s success, with versions of “I got him in. He had no chance. His political life was over.” Trump was referencing his surprise early endorsement of DeSantis in December 2017, when the little-known congressman from northeast Florida was still an underdog headed for an August 2018 gubernatorial primary. Despite starting with low name-recognition, DeSantis ended up winning that race by a 20-point margin, then went on to squeak out a very narrow general election victory.
Note that Trump’s recent endorsement of Rep. Donalds, potentially Florida’s first Black governor, sounded remarkably like his endorsement of DeSantis.
DeSantis proved to be a very popular first-term governor and, in 2022, won reelection by a stunning 19 percentage points. That unexpectedly large margin led the ambitious couple to believe 2024 might be their presidential year. Instead, DeSantis’s extraordinary primary race failure is a campaign management class case study.
Today, the still ambitious but more cautious couple faces another monumental political decision: Should Casey DeSantis run for Ron’s “third term”? Early polls show Florida’s first lady could be competitive with Donalds. And unlike her stiff, combative and wonkish husband, Casey has a friendly, approachable personality and media presence. She was a huge asset to Ron when he won his two statewide elections. Add to that her invaluable presidential campaign experience. If elected, Mrs. DeSantis would become Florida’s first female governor.
But warning signals abound for Casey should she take the plunge. Given Donalds’s extraordinary head start, the same powerful MAGA forces that destroyed her husband’s presidential campaign have been reactivated. That includes White House Chief of Staff Susie Wiles, who remains an archenemy of the couple after they nearly politically decapitated her in 2019.
The third reason for Donalds’s early gubernatorial grand emergence is also about Trump’s rule by fear and loyalty. With his exuberant endorsement of Donalds, Trump created an unprecedented early bandwagon for the highest-profile Trump-world endorsements — all decidedly anti-DeSantis.
This week, Sen. Rick Scott (R-Fla.) joined the growing A-list, along with Rep. Vern Buchanan (R-Fla.). Already on it were Donald Trump Jr. and Lara Trump, a newly minted Fox News host. Adding more heft is Charlie Kirk with his Turning Point USA army and media megaphone. Additionally, the formerly DeSantis-friendly Club for Growth has changed teams.
Numerous big-money power players will assist Donalds in raising millions, starting with his campaign kickoff event on March 28. Naturally, a Mar-a-Lago fundraiser is scheduled for May 1.
Meanwhile, Casey DeSantis is left with the fundraising equivalent of crumbs. This week, NBC reported that the governor is urging Florida lobbyists not to back Donalds. This race will either become messy or fizzle if Casey declines to run, which is precisely the objective of Trump’s uber-early endorsement of Donalds.
But wait for the “law of unexpected events.” Expectations are impossibly high for Donalds, who is still untested in a statewide race. In the age of Trump, voters still matter, and the primary is 17 months away. In the meantime, watch for sizzling hot Florida drama with severe sunburns.
Myra Adams is an opinion writer who served on the creative team of two Republican presidential campaigns in 2004 and 2008.
