European leaders are scrambling to respond to President Trump’s first moves to end Russia’s war in Ukraine, shocked to find themselves on the outside of high-stakes talks about the continent’s security and grappling with a potential retreat of U.S. forces from Europe.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio said “real talks” will involve Europe and Ukraine, as he prepares to meet his Russian counterpart in Saudi Arabia on Tuesday. But that follows a slew of mixed messages from Trump’s top officials and a brow-beating from Vice President Vance at the Munich Security Conference last week.
Leaders of eight major European countries met on Monday to coordinate a response, after being caught on their back foot by Trump’s opening gambit on Russia-Ukraine talks.
Even Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky on Monday said he “knew nothing about” the peace discussions in the Middle East until they were announced publicly.
“I think Europe is realizing that they have to come up with a plan, quickly, and on their own to be ready for whatever comes next,” said Sudha David-Wilp, Vice President of External Relations and Senior Fellow with the German Marshall Fund.
“The mood was turning from bad to worse,” said one European foreign policy expert who attended the Munich conference, granted anonymity to speak candidly.
European officials expected to be taken to task over low defense spending, but not to be left out of talks completely. The uncertainty is already spurring talks on loosening the EU’s budgetary deficit requirements to allow more spending on defense, the expert said.
“There will probably be a series of announcements by Europeans in the upcoming days to signal to the Americans that they are to be taken seriously – but also to reassure each other,” they said.
French President Emanuel Macron called the emergency meeting on Monday, inviting the leaders of Germany, the United Kingdom, Italy, Poland, Spain, the Netherlands, Denmark and the European Union.
U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer proposed sending British troops to Ukraine as post-war peacekeepers, responding to Trump’s calls for Europe to take more responsibility for its security.
And Zelensky lectured Europe against being treated “like a pushover” and called for the European Union to nominate an envoy to any peace talks.
“There must be a representative of Europe,” Zelensky told reporters, also warning that “Ukraine regards any negotiations about Ukraine without Ukraine as having no results.”
The Trump administration fueled European fears throughout last week, starting with Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth attending a meeting of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group in Brussels.
Hegseth warned Europe to prepare for a future without U.S. troops on the continent, and triggered whiplash by seeming to rule out Ukraine joining NATO as part of peace talks, before later saying all options remain on the table.
Trump then called Russian President Vladimir Putin to discuss a ceasefire, before later speaking with Zelensky. And Vance closed out the week by lecturing Europeans on democracy, saying its leaders were scared of their own voters.
Trump’s special envoy for Ukraine, retired General Keith Kellogg, seemed to confirm Saturday that the U.S. does not see Europe as having a physical seat at the negotiations – but said it would take the region’s interests into account.
“What we don’t want to do is get into a large group discussion,” Kellogg said Saturday in Munich.
That will be true for at least the first round of talks, set to begin in the Saudi capital on Tuesday and include Rubio, national security adviser Mike Walz and special envoy to the Middle East Steve Witkoff, along with Russia officials, according to the State Department.
Rubio said Sunday that the initial talks would determine how serious Russia was, and that if negotiations continue, “Ukraine will have to be involved because they’re the ones that were invaded, and the Europeans will have to be involved because they have sanctions on Putin and Russia as well.”
Jennifer Kavanagh, senior fellow and director of military analysis at Defense Priorities, said Europe’s role remains uncertain.
“Trump does see Putin as his counterpart, and does see the European leaders as lacking in sort of the geopolitical heft – which is true and partly their own fault,” she said.
“At the same time, though, I don’t think it’s clear that the Europeans will be shut out entirely from the negotiations.”
Lithuania’s former foreign minister, Gabrielius Landsbergis, wrote on the social media site X that he left Munich in a “low mood” and with “dark thoughts” in the face of a potential reality where the U.S. retreats from security guarantees for Europe.
The U.S. is NATO’s de-facto leader, and is seen as the only member-country with the capacity to build and supply the necessary military munitions for Ukraine to stay in the fight against Russia.
“People who say that Europe must be at the table should remember that to be invited, you have to matter. If Europe commits to money, troops and a European path for Ukraine, we will make our own table and Ukraine, Putin, and Trump can be invited. But time is running out,” Landsbergis wrote.
“I am fully aware that my suggestion leads only to blood, toil, tears and sweat. But we have done it before and we can do it again. The alternative is to rebuild the continent after another devastating war, and that would be much harder and take much more time.”
Franak Viačorka, chief political advisor to Belarus’s exiled president-elect Sviatlana Tsihanouskaya, said the prevailing themse coming out of Munich is “revision.”
“Alliances, approaches, values, and interests are being reassessed. This is truly a new era — one that could lead us into a world of freedom or destroy us, allowing tyranny to prevail,” he wrote to The Hill by text.
“Certainly, Europe is waking up. And undoubtedly, the new reality is making Europe more determined. The problem is that Europe consists of 27 voices, and the level of motivation and readiness for bold actions varies. I believe that this crisis and this reassessment may unite Europe, including around Ukraine. And I hope around Belarus too.”
Germany and France are the traditional leaders among the 27-nation E.U. bloc. But the continent is somewhat paralyzed until Germany carries out its national elections, set for Feb. 23, in terms of major decisions on security funding.
“There is a vacuum of leadership at the moment,” said David-Wilp, from the German Marshall Fund.
“Ukraine is the first hurdle, but I think the larger topic still remains, how are Europeans going to envision a future security order,” she continued, as the U.S. talks about turning its attention toward China and stepping back from its leadership role in NATO in Europe.
Kavanagh said European countries were operating under an old paradigm, where Trump in his first term pushed them to spend more on their defense but still under the direction of American leadership.
“My point to them was, no, instead, you should figure out what you need to defend yourself with no U.S. support, and that should be your goal,” she said of conversations she’s had with European leaders in the lead-up to Trump’s re-election.
She said the remarks from Trump administration officials this week re-affirmed that view.
