It’s been three brutal years since Vladimir Putin launched his bid to conquer Ukraine; it’s time to find a lasting peace — which is only possible if all sides are realistic.
One huge difference is that we have a new US president — one who’s stronger, but also understands how to negotiate.
Putin knows he can’t snow Donald Trump as he did Joe Biden, who routinely folded in the face of Vlad’s nuclear bluffs — thereby failing to support Kyiv hard and fast enough to dislodge the Russians.
Biden lost that opportunity for good: It’s now pointless to demand a return to Ukraine’s 2014 borders (to be fair, Barack Obama let Crimea go); any chance of admitting Kyiv to NATO isn’t just a deal-breaker for Putin, it won’t sell to the alliance’s current membership.
On the other hand, these years have crushed Russia’s economy; Putin desperately needs to be able to sell his energy to the West again, especially if he’s to escape becoming a complete satrap of Beijing.
(It’s a bonus to pretty much everyone that reopening Russian trade will bring down energy prices across the West.)
So Vlad will take a deal that lets him preserve face and offers security that what he sees as Western efforts to undermine Moscow’s power in its “near abroad” will cease.
In return, he must accept the voice of Volodymyr Zelensky in the peace talks, even if his real negotiations are with Trump.
Trump, too, must recognize that Zelensky is key to a stable future: If Ukraine’s president is seen as being dictated to in some “peace in our time” farce, the whole country will look and feel weak — and Putin’s tanks are all too likely to get rolling again soon.
Similarly, doing a deal with Kyiv on rare earths is a savvy move by Trump in securing US support for Ukraine and for peace: The public sees America finally “getting something” for standing with Ukraine, and it establishes a clear US interest that any future Putin aggression would threaten — thereby bolstering Kyiv’s security.
Look: Under these circumstances, a peace deal is a cold-hearted gamble by the warring parties.
Putin can bet on a chance to rebuild at home, a breather until the feckless West offers him new opportunities (starting, perhaps, with another Democrat in the White House).
This also offers him room to secure his own legacy: He’s 72, and must fear that Russia will get eaten alive if it faces another succession crisis.
Zelensky and Ukraine can bet on the chance for peace, freedom and economic growth — to build their nation to be too strong for Putin or his heirs to even think about taking on.
(And after Putin, who knows what will be possible? Maybe a genuine peace.)
Trump, too, is gambling — with his reputation.
Can he resolve this particular Biden mess in a way that no one can believably call a sellout?
Early signs are good: He just did a hostage trade with Putin on far better terms than Biden could ever manage.
Let’s all pray for a solid deal that can stick, so Trump can focus on fixing all the other Biden messes.
