Vladimir Putin is no genius, but occasionally he is right. After the U.S. and Ukraine agreed to a ceasefire, Russia’s president stated that any such deal had to address the root causes of the war. Putin was right, though not in the way he imagined.
As the courageous democratic activist Vladimir Kara-Murza, formerly a political prisoner in Russia, stated, “For once, albeit accidentally, Putin has told the truth: Long-term peace in Ukraine is only possible by ‘eliminating the root causes of this crisis.’ The main ‘root cause’ is an old deranged KGB officer in the Kremlin who views the collapse of the Soviet empire as ‘the greatest geopolitical catastrophe of the 20th century,’ calls his opponents ‘national traitors’ and Ukraine an ‘artificial state,’ and idolizes Stalin and Andropov. Without ‘eliminating’ this ‘root cause’ there will not be peace not only in Ukraine, but in Europe as a whole.”
Kara-Murza is right. Russia’s road to peace, decency and normality must begin with Putin’s departure from the political scene. As long as this “old deranged KGB officer” remains in charge, Russia will remain in the Stone Age and peace with Ukraine will be out of reach.
Some analysts view Putin as being firmly in control; others, like me, believe he’s barely creaking along. Regardless, we can state with certainty that his ability to function at the top of his game will decrease as he approaches his eighties. Sooner rather than later, Russians will say goodbye (and good riddance) to him.
Although Russia’s genocidal war against Ukraine is likely to pause and perhaps even end with Putin’s departure, Russia will remain a threat to Ukraine, all its neighbors and the world as long as two other root causes remain in place. These are Russian imperialist political culture and Russian fascism, both of which are embodied in Putin. There will be war, in Ukraine or elsewhere, as long as this unholy trinity exists.
And here’s where things get really complicated. Although political culture is never the immediate cause of aggression, it is a powerful facilitator thereof. As long as most Russians sincerely continue to believe in their country’s unique greatness, limitless boundaries and divinely inspired earthly mission, they will also be predisposed to take up arms in support of Mother Russia’s expansive ambitions. Moreover, Russian elites will always be able to draw on a ready-made legitimation of their dark imperialist goals.
Unfortunately, political cultures change slowly, unless they experience cataclysms that open everyone’s eyes to their destructive and self-destructive natures. It took the Germans over two decades to fully assimilate the cultural lessons of Nazi Germany’s catastrophe. Russia would have to lose badly in the ongoing war against Ukraine for such a scenario to be possible.
Unless President Trump snatches defeat from the jaws of victory by agreeing to Russia’s “peace” terms, a Russian defeat is actually very likely, as its manpower losses exceed a million, the economy goes into steep decline and Ukraine seizes control of the skies with legions of drones.
The future of Putin’s fascistic system will likely be a bit brighter, though guardedly so. On the one hand, Putin’s departure will probably deliver a body blow to the system he has so painstakingly constructed over the past quarter-century. No one will be able to fit into his shoes for the simple reason that founding fathers are irreplaceable. (The same logic applies to Trump’s putative successor, Vice President JD Vance.)
That said, Putin’s fascistic system will likely survive Putin, albeit in less centralized form, for a few years. Alas, it’s a sure bet that some of his successors will try to reanimate it. Even if they ultimately fail, war will serve as their raison d’être, and the war against Ukraine will likely continue.
Naturally, Putin claims to be the solution, and not the source, of Russia’s headlong surge into prehistory. He will continue the war because his political, and possibly physical, survival depends on the war’s continuance. Ironically, by staying on, Putin is increasing the likelihood of Russia’s defeat, Russian political culture’s encounter with a cataclysm and Russian fascism’s demise.
Alexander J. Motyl is a professor of political science at Rutgers University-Newark. A specialist on Ukraine, Russia and the USSR, and on nationalism, revolutions, empires and theory, he is the author of 10 books of nonfiction, as well as “Imperial Ends: The Decay, Collapse, and Revival of Empires” and “Why Empires Reemerge: Imperial Collapse and Imperial Revival in Comparative Perspective.”
