America stands hours away from the second Trumpian era. But around the world, it feels like it has already begun.
Almost since election day, jihadis, autocrats, and NATO allies alike have been watching their backs in what has felt like a global game of Whac-a-Mole in which the moles finally believe that they might get whacked.
The cease-fire in Gaza this week marked the first achievement of the returning president. It was secured before he reached the White House, under his big, swinging stick.
At least that’s what Team Trump wants us to believe. It’s true that his Middle East envoy, Steve Witkoff, was deeply involved in the final stages of the deal, which could still be derailed as both Hamas and Netanyahu bicker on the fine print.
But it is also true that Donald Trump’s threat that there would be “hell to pay” if the hostages weren’t released helped force the deal over the line.
Joe Biden dismissed Trump’s claim of credit for the agreement as a “joke.” This was the same package that he had proposed in May, he insisted. Would it truly have been better if it had been signed eight months ago?
What does Trump’s contribution tell us about his swinging-stick foreign policy doctrine? And is the ceasefire a good thing anyway?
Let’s take the last question first. It is hard to understate the joy and relief that the return of the first batch of hostages will evoke. Israel has been a country in emotionally suspended animation.
The suffering borne by Palestinian civilians and Israeli families as the war has ground gruesomely on has been immeasurable. The end to all that is welcome. But it’s a coin toss whether this marks an end to Hamas or simply removes the boot from their necks.
The jihadi gang has certainly been dismantled as a coherent military force. It has lost 80% of its men and 90% of its fighting capacity at the hands of the IDF. But as Israeli opposition leader Benny Gantz remarked last March, there’s no point extinguishing 80% of a fire.
This week, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken claimed that Hamas has been coming back hard. Its new recruits may be untrained and underage, but in the continued absence of a plan for the postwar Gaza governance, they will help Hamas retain its grip.
If Hamas keeps quiet and awaits the reconstruction phase, could it build back for another October 7? Perhaps. This time, however, things are different. Hezbollah is castrated in Lebanon, Assad is history and the Ayatollah of Tehran is mourning the smoking ruins of his air defenses, awaiting the coup de grace – which Trump may well deliver – to his nuclear program.
Which brings us to Biden. If this deal had been struck in May, as he had intended, Israel’s Gaza success would have been far more modest.
Rafah would still be a Hamas garrison town, Hamas leaders Yahya Sinwar and Ismail Haniyeh still alive, and the smuggling tunnels from Egypt still ferrying armaments, personnel, and cash into the Strip.
Hezbollah’s leader, Hassan Nasrallah, would not be dead, his pagers and walkie-talkies would not have exploded, Tehran would not have lost its S-300 air defenses and Assad may not have been deposed. This war would have ended with a bruised but belligerent Hamas ready to strike again.
So it was hard to take Biden seriously as he faltered through his statement at the White House.
“It’s America’s support for Israel that helped them badly weaken Hamas . . . and create the conditions for this deal,” he bragged.
American weapons shipments were welcome, but Kamala Harris and Blinken had tried to block these Israeli achievements every step of the way.
It’s not that Biden gave off small-stick energy. It’s that he often had no stick at all. His administration’s craven addiction to the status quo — which presented “de-escalation” as the only legitimate response to every bad guy everywhere — led the world into its most dangerous state since the end of the Second World War.
What began with the shameful Afghan withdrawal ended with missiles on Tel Aviv. Along the way, Biden eased Trump’s “maximum pressure” policy on Venezuela and Iran — look how well that went — and war returned to Europe. Then Trump was elected. And he began to swing that stick.
Don’t be distracted by Trump’s wild ambitions to seize the Panama Canal and Greenland, rename the Gulf of Mexico, and conquer Canada. Some of these things may happen — an American Greenland, in particular, makes a lot of sense — but most will probably fall by the wayside.
Instead, keep your eyes on the NATO countries, which have been told by Trump to increase their pitiful defense spending to 5% of GDP; the reaction has been panic and infighting. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz has already said that the 5% figure is too high.
Keep your eyes on Iran, which as it teeters on the brink of economic, military, and social collapse, presents unfinished business for the Donald.
And keep your eyes on Venezuela, where the Socialist tyrant Nicolás Maduro recently seized power in a deeply suspicious election and then threatened to invade Puerto Rico.
Trump has taken tough action against Maduro before, calling him a “dictator” and being branded as a “vulgar, miserable . . . racist cowboy” by Maduro in return. Expect new sanctions against Caracas by Trump 2.0.
When it comes to the most serious problems facing the world today, Trump is coming out swinging. Despite its tenuousness, the Gaza deal is the first tentative sign that big sticks might work best after all.
