You know when Ted Cruz shares a thread and says wow, not once, not twice, but three times, that the thread in question is worth a read.
Remember when Trump promised he would drain the swamp? About that …
wow. wow. wow. https://t.co/lGFibxRu4B
— Ted Cruz (@tedcruz) February 15, 2025
And boy, HOWDY, was he right.
Take a look at this:
This is absolutely insane:
Since DOGE began discussing mass layoffs, the median home price in Washington DC has FALLEN by -$139,000.
In 30 days, nearly 4,000 homes have been listed for sale in and around Washington DC.
What is happening? Let us explain.
(a thread) pic.twitter.com/rPyp4fFvzN
— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) February 15, 2025
Grab a snack.
Here’s a chart showing median home price in the Washington, DC area.
In November 2024, the median home in Washington, DC was worth ~$699,000, according to Redfin.
Today, the median home is worth $560,000, marking a -20% drop in ~3 months.
Mass selling is an understatement. pic.twitter.com/g7qJDfZB5D
— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) February 15, 2025
Gosh, what could have changed?
There are now nearly 8,000 homes for sale in the Washington, DC metro area.
Nearly HALF of these homes have been listed for sale over the last 30 days.
Since November 2024, nearly 5,000 homes have been listed for sale, well above average.
So, what exactly is happening here? pic.twitter.com/tNTBcLDGls
— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) February 15, 2025
OOH OOH, WE KNOW!
Year-over-year, home listings in the Washington DC metro area are up ~23%.
Parts of Virginia are seeing 60%-70%+ jumps in year-over-year listings.
Keep in mind, this is during the winter months in a housing market that has been historically LOW on supply.
Truly insane. pic.twitter.com/mgbeUCeCLG
— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) February 15, 2025
Recommended
Fair point. If we see an increase like this in April, that makes sense.
But the winter?
Eh.
Listings accelerated after DOGE’s federal employee buyout offer was announced.
The offer pays employees through September 2025 if they quit, with 5%-10% of employees expected agree.
As of this week, 65,000 federal employees have accepted the buyout offer, per WSJ. pic.twitter.com/S6xVZCdxEe
— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) February 15, 2025
The average total compensation for a federal employee is $106K.
Today, Fox News reported that 3,600 probationary Health and Human Services employees were laid off by DOGE.
This is expected to save $600 MILLION in taxpayer dollars annually.
The 65,000 DOGE cuts so far are now saving an estimated ~$38 billion in annual taxpayer dollars. pic.twitter.com/SV3fOprrtN
— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) February 15, 2025
WOW. Wow. Wow.
As Cruz said.
On day 8 of the formation of @DOGE, the below announcement was made.
DOGE is reportedly saving the US Government $1 billion PER DAY.
This means DOGE could reduce US deficit spending by 20% in YEAR 1.
More layoffs are coming as workforce reduction has been a primary DOGE goal. pic.twitter.com/Jjsjj5jqtJ
— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) February 15, 2025
One billion per day.
That’s insane.
Here’s where it gets even more interesting:
There has been a SURGE in new listings in Washington, DC with a listing price of $1,000,000+.
There are now 525 listings of $1+ million and 44 listings worth $5+ million.
This suggests high-profile job exits are rising. pic.twitter.com/WR2bDApWt0
— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) February 15, 2025
Anyone else sort of pissed off that ‘public servants’ have homes this expensive in the first place?
Just wait until we see the effects on commercial real estate in Washington, DC.
DOGE announced plans to eliminate up to TWO-THIRDS of US government office buildings, per WSJ.
Not a single major US government agency is currently occupying even 50% of their office space. pic.twitter.com/8Q6JDF1r5O
— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) February 15, 2025
If they’re not using the space, why the Hell are we paying for them? Makes no sense.
DOGE has specifically noted that Washington, DC federal government buildings are particularly empty.
On average, they are just 12% occupied.
The Department of Agriculture saw just ~456 of 7,400 employees use their office.
The DC real estate market is just getting started. pic.twitter.com/CzcqUXZHvQ
— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) February 15, 2025
12% occupied.
If you zoom out further, there are ~15 THOUSAND homes for sale around Washington, DC.
In fact, there are so many homes for sale in the downtown area that Zillow is grouping 280 homes together.
This is an unprecedented level of selling in a generally “strong” housing market. pic.twitter.com/X3JZkqr0zo
— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) February 15, 2025
Told you guys …
We’re seeing the swamp drain in real-time, and DOGE is just getting started.
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