The Post’s Erich Richter makes his pick for Super Bowl 2025.
Sunday
CHIEFS (-1.5) over Eagles
Not much statistically points to the Chiefs being favorites in this one.
In fact, they probably shouldn’t even be here. But that’s what happens when you employ the best quarterback in the NFL and a team of bona fide finishers who don’t make mistakes late in games.
Kansas City is 7-0 in playoff games with spreads less than a field goal with Mahomes under center.
The sharp money — or whale bets, or however you’d like to distinguish — is on the Eagles going into the weekend.
Wednesday, ESPN Bet’s director of North American trading Adrian Horton told me that everyone was betting on the Eagles mid-week, including having taken a $200,000 wager on them.
Nevertheless, he added that they are expecting Chiefs money to come in ahead of the game Sunday.
The hardest part of this game for the Eagles will land on third down and whether Steve Spagnulo’s defense is beatable in those circumstances.
The Chiefs’ run defense is generally considered strong despite struggling against James Cook and the Bills in the conference championship. Can they re-discover that form?
During the season, the Chiefs were No. 2 in the league at preventing second-level yards to opposing running backs and No. 2 in the league at preventing open-field yards, according to FTN’s Aaron Schatz.
This is where we talk about Saquon Barkley, who is probably the best running back in the NFL and has been ripping off long runs at will.
One stat I’d like to point out is that the Eagles have had a generous schedule against the run this year.
This isn’t to disqualify anything Barkley accomplished this year, but 75 percent of his rushing yards were against bottom-10 run defenses.
On the year, the Chiefs are ranked No. 7, allowing just 4.2 yards per carry this season. So, the true question is whether they can hold Barkley down at all, a tall task.
The Eagles’ offensive line is phenomenal, but I trust Spagnuolo, and it’s hard for me to think their run defense has regressed to the level we have seen in recently. They’re healthier than they’ve been all season.
Frankly, I think the Eagles are getting some extra love here after smashing the Commanders in the conference championship.
Look for the Chiefs to pull away with a late touchdown in a highly competitive game. I don’t see any blowouts this weekend.
Chiefs-Eagles Under 48.5
When looking at the total, we have two strong defenses — the Eagles are rated No. 1 in DVOA, and the Chiefs come in at No. 11.
Plus, the Eagles love draining the clock on their opponents. I tend to go toward the Under on the slimmest of margins, with my betting model projecting a small 1 percent edge on the Under 48.5.
Betting on the NFL?
My projected score for the game is 25-22 Chiefs, thus resulting in an Under. For the ones who want to wager on the exact score, the Chiefs to win by that score is 500/1 on FanDuel.
The total has been a true coin flip when betting on the big game — the Over is 29-28 in the Super Bowl.
Bet on that to move to 29-29 this year in a hotly contested matchup.
Chiefs 25, Eagles 22.
Championship week: 1-1
Season: 119-137-3.
