A pause in the Ukraine war will allow Russia to rebuild its forces in preparation for an attack on NATO and European nations within five years, Latvia’s security service warned Monday.
The Baltic nation’s Constitution Protection Bureau (SAB) assessed that Russia does not currently have the manpower and resources to threaten NATO thanks to “the costly invasion” against Ukraine — but that could change with time.
“However, if the war were to become ‘frozen’ and Russia no longer had to suffer significant losses during the active hostilities in Ukraine, Moscow would be able to increase its military presence next to the NATO’s northeastern flank, including the Baltics, within the next five years,” the SAB’s annual report warns.
Latvia’s findings suggested that Ukraine’s endurance against Russia, as well as America and Europe’s combined economic sanctions, have weakened Moscow and threatened its ability to wage future war.
Although the exact number of casualties in the war have yet to be independently verified, Kyiv estimates that nearly 250,000 Russian troops have been killed in the conflict, which is approaching its third year.
Western intelligence officials estimate that about 800,000 Russian soldiers have been killed or injured while fighting in the invasion effort.
President Trump, who campaigned on the promise to end the bloodshed immediately, has called on the fighting to halt right away — as the US began informal peace talks with Moscow on Monday.
SAB Director Egils Zviedris said it was imperative that negotiators consider the “long-term” effects of an immediate cease-fire given Russia’s proclivity to return to war in Eastern Europe.
Russia had infamously annexed Crimea from Ukraine in 2014 in a bloody conflict before relaunching another invasion in February 2022.
The SAB’s report also accused Russia of actively developing and deploying sabotage attacks across Europe as preparation for “a real military confrontation.”
“It is very likely that the Russian services are testing the European reaction and ability to prevent such incidents,” the SAB said of the suspected attacks.
In late 2024, Baltic nations sounded the alarms against suspected Russian sabotage after multiple underwater power cables in the region were severed, affecting NATO and European Union members.
Moscow has repeatedly denied the allegations from the European leaders, claiming the reports of sabotage were faked as a means to damage Russia’s reputation.
The warning from Latvia, a NATO nation, comes just a week after the Danish Defense Intelligence Services sounded the same alarm, claiming Russia could be ready to wage “large-scale war” in Europe within the next five years.
