Former Los Angeles mayoral candidate Rick Caruso is stoking speculation about his political future as he becomes one of the most vocal Democratic critics of the handling of the wildfires that have ravaged parts of the region.
Caruso has taken part in a local and national media blitz, telling Bill Maher over the weekend that he predicted the catastrophe. The former candidate has also seen public support from President Trump’s adviser Elon Musk on the social platform X, which Caruso has reshared.
Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass (D), who is up for reelection in 2026, has been facing backlash for her response to the fires. Meanwhile, Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) is wrapping up his term. Caruso has been floated for both positions.
“Rick Caruso becomes this obvious, center-left former Republican,” said Rob Stutzman, a California political consultant who was an aide to former Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger (R). “It’s not a Republican but it’s certainly a pendulum swing to the middle.”
Caruso was registered as a Republican until 2011, when he dropped the affiliation and registered as a Democrat. Despite spending $100 million during his 2022 mayoral run and outspending Bass, Caruso ultimately lost by less than10 points.
The businessman-turned-politician told Maher he wants to focus on rebuilding, but he appeared to leave the door open to another potential run for office.
“There’s time for me to decide if I want to run or not,” Caruso said.
With Bass now facing backlash for her response to the preparation and response to the region’s wildfires, Caruso has become a frequent critic of her and the city’s response to the crisis.
“We’ve got a mayor that’s out of the country and a city that’s burning and there’s no resources to put out fires,” Caruso told Fox 11 News in Los Angeles earlier this month following the start of the fires. “It looks like we’re in a third-world country, and we’ve got a lot of tough questions that we need to ask the mayor and the city council and our representatives and the county representatives. Why didn’t you work to mitigate this?”
Over the weekend, Caruso said he predicted the wildfires, citing the city’s poor preparation.
“We had a fire three weeks ago in Malibu. Six years ago, we had a fire in Brentwood, and for those that don’t know the Brentwood area, it’s 15 minutes from where the Palisades Fire was. There’s 40-year-old vegetation between Brentwood and the Palisades, and at that time, I said, ‘If that fire travels, it’s going to come through and wipe out the Palisades,’” Caruso said.
“I’m so sad that I was right,” he continued. “It was predictable, Bill. And what’s predictable is preventable.”
Caruso further waded into the political fray when he criticized the idea of federal lawmakers conditioning wildfire aide to the region, calling it “bulls‑‑‑.”
He’s also received praise on X from Musk, who has invoked Caruso’s loss to Bass when commentating on the wildfires.
“Obama made sure that Rick Caruso, who is extremely competent, lost to utterly incompetent Mayor Karen (her real name),” Musk said in a post on the platform that Caruso reposted.
Caruso has also touched on his experience with the fire, saying he had to evacuate from his home and that his daughter’s home was destroyed.
“It is entirely possible that he is just expressing some anger and some sadness on behalf of the many people he knows in Pacific Palisades and in the region,” said former California Assemblymember Mike Gatto (D).
Others say Caruso has taken advantage of a prime political moment at a time when Bass is on weak footing.
“She’s wounded and now you have the person who came close to beating her last time now leaning into the crisis,” said one California Democratic strategist, arguing Caruso is “leveraging the situation in an effective way.”
There is also the question of what kind of run Caruso would launch if he’s considering public office. In 2022, Democrats painted him as right-leaning, pointing to his past party affiliation. The strategy worked in the heavily Democratic city.
“Running for governor, it’s an easier electorate. The city of LA is a more liberal electorate than the state of California,” Stutzman said. “But if he’s passionate about Los Angeles and obviously a city in need of a lot of systemic fixes, I wouldn’t be surprised if personally that’s what he’s primarily drawn to.”
Los Angeles’s future political environment will hinge on the rebuilding and recovery efforts, which gives Bass and Democrats an opportunity.
“2026 is right around the corner,” said another California Democrat. “That’s a lifetime in politics. If Mayor Bass got her act together … then people might forgive her by then and the electorate is still very Democratic.”
There’s also the question of whether anyone launches a recall effort and whether Caruso would have any role in it. Any effort would be pressed up to the 2026 midterms.
“The thing about a recall is that by the time you qualified it and the election took place, you would be seven to five months from the June primary,” Stutzman said.
“Given everything else that needs to happen in LA, I’m skeptical if a recall would actually be a good idea,” he continued.
