It was a meteoric rise.
The odds that “city killer” asteroid 2024 YR4 will strike our planet just increased again, hitting a “historic” threshold.
NASA recently raised the probability of deep impact to one-in-32, or 3.1%, according to the latest data from the space agency’s Center for Near Earth Object Studies.
This marks a concerning progression for the interstellar missile, which clocked in at 1-in-83 (1.2%) when it was initially spotted rocketing through our solar system in December 2024. These odds then doubled to 2.3% on February 7, before climbing to 2.6% earlier this week, and finally, the latest frightening figure.
These odds make 2024 YR4 the most dangerous asteroid tracked by modern forecasts, eclipsing the 2004 predictions for the Apophis, which boasted a 2.7 percent chance of striking Earth in 2029 before this was ruled out by additional observations, according to Phys.org.
This milestone is “historic,” according to Richard Moissl, head of the European Space Agency’s planetary defense office, which places the probability slightly lower at 2.8%.
If we were to get struck by the space rock — which measures between 131 and 295 feet in diameter — the resultant energy blast would be equivalent to 8 megatons of TNT, roughly 500 times the power of the atomic bomb dropped on Hiroshima.
In addition, YR4’s projected trajectory spans eight of the world’s most populated cities — including Bogota in Colombia, Lagos in Nigeria, and Mumbai and Chennai in India — with the total at-risk population clocking in at around 110 million people.
“If you put it over Paris or London or New York, you basically wipe out the whole city and some of the environs,” Bruce Betts, chief scientist for the nonprofit Planetary Society told AFP, Newsweek reported.
Despite the meteoric increase, scientists claim this is no time for hysteria.
“I’m not panicking,” said Betts. “Naturally when you see the percentages go up, it doesn’t make you feel warm and fuzzy and good.”
However, the researcher predicted that the impact probability would continue its ascent, before dropping back down to zero like many of the other so-called killer asteroids on NASA’s watch list.
“This is not a crisis at this point in time,” seconded Moissl. “This is not the dinosaur killer. This is not the planet killer. This is at most dangerous for a city.”
To better gauge the level of risk, scientists will employ the use of the James Webb Space Telescope, which will help pinpoint the rock’s size by using its infrared instruments to study the heat emitted by it.
This data will in turn be “used by ESA [the European Space Agency], NASA, and other organizations to more confidently assess the hazard and determine any necessary response,” the ESA wrote.
