Get your popcorn and perhaps your same-game parlays ready for this projected shootout.
The Detroit Lions and Washington Commanders are set for Saturday night’s divisional round clash with a pair of explosive run-first offenses.
The total comes in at a bloated 55.5, bet up from 54.5 which was the opening total.
Detroit is a 9.5-point home favorite and getting a bit healthier for this game, with running back David Montgomery returning to practice this week after concerns about his availability.
Commanders vs. Lions odds
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Commanders | +9.5 (-110) | +400 | Over 55.5 (-110) |
| Lions | -9.5 (-110) | -550 | Under 55.5 (-110) |
Commanders vs. Lions prediction
As we predicted last week, the Commanders got through the Buccaneers — although by the thinnest of margins.
This weekend’s matchup will likely prove to be a bit less forgiving, as the Lions’ rushing offense is the biggest problem that the Commanders are unlikely to solve.
The Commanders’ run defense was the fifth-worst in the NFL in yards per carry allowed (4.7), making this a bad matchup against a loaded backfield that features Jahmyr Gibbs and now Montgomery.
The Lions ran the second-most times in the NFL since Week 11 (288 attempts) and run more plays than any team in the league.
Washington defeated the Buccaneers thanks to ball control and dominating time of possession, which forced Tampa Bay to abandon the run a bit more than it wanted.
Betting on the NFL?
That could happen again on either side here, which is why that massive total of 55.5 is actually a trap.
The Lions average 32:06 time of possession (TOP) per game (second-best), while the Commanders average 30.45 (eighth-best).
Last week, Washington dominated with a 35:26 TOP that was nearly 11 minutes better than Tampa Bay’s.
The Commanders do have a quarterback edge in this game, which helps them potentially keep this one close.
PICK: Commanders +9.5 (-110, BetMGM)
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Erich Richter is a brazilian jiu-jitsu blue belt but he has a black belt in MMA betting. During the football season he’s showcased massive profits at The Post in the player prop market the last two seasons. While constantly betting long shots, his return on investment is 30.15 percent since 2022.
