As the season evolves, the betting market tightens. That premise is due to the simple concept of accumulating more data points, thereby making projections more accurate.
However, when drastic lineup changes occur, we have scenarios where it makes sense to disregard almost all past results that do not provide much of a baseline.
A prime example is Monday, when the Dallas Mavericks visit the San Antonio Spurs.
Mavericks vs. Spurs odds
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mavericks | +6.5 (-108) | +200 | o231 (-112) |
| Spurs | -6.5 (-112) | -245 | u231 (-108) |
Stars Luka Doncic, Kyrie Irving and Victor Wembanyama are all recently gone, significantly changing every aspect of these teams.
Thus, I believe the power ratings of both teams are soft and vulnerable, which I believe creates a path for me to build on my 31-17 ATS record in the Post sports section.
In my eyes, the Mavs are a mess.
They have lost four straight games since losing Irving to a season-ending knee injury. That was the final straw on a tumultuous stretch that started with the shocking and deflating Doncic trade, on the heels of Anthony Davis’ injury.
However, the Spurs have shown some fight with a 3-7 stretch since learning Wemby will miss the rest of the year, including Sunday’s 141-124 road setback versus the Timberwolves.
Betting on the NBA?
The main reason for their moderate success is they still have legit talent in De’Aaron Fox and a supporting cast that includes competitive forces in Chris Paul, Jeremy Sochan and Stephon Castle. Those guys give maximum effort and will refuse to allow any sort of apathy.
That is why I am laying the points with San Antonio.
Both played Sunday and had to travel, so that scheduling variable feels like a wash. I am backing the stronger roster with a better chance of performing to high standards.
BET: Spurs -5.5 (-130, FanDuel)
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Why Trust New York Post Betting
Doug Kezirian is a New York Post contributor who currently serves as the Chief Content Officer for Only Players, a sports betting media company. Doug has over two decades of experience in the betting space, including spending 11 years at ESPN as a host, columnist and betting analyst. He’s also the rare personality who has documented success – 14th place in 2023 Circa Million and Las Vegas SuperContest ($37K), two top-10 finishes in 2022 William Hill College Football Challenge ($58K) and also grabbed headlines with a $297K win on the 2021 NFL Draft.
