Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp (R) is at the center of intense speculation as Republicans wait to see whether the popular two-term governor will run against Sen. Jon Ossoff (D-Ga.) next year.
Republicans believe Kemp would clear the field and be the party’s most formidable candidate against Ossoff, a first-term senator who beat a Trump-backed Republican in one of the biggest upsets of the 2020 election cycle.
“It’s kind of the parlor game in Georgia right now,” quipped prominent conservative commentator Erick Erickson of the “will-he-or-won’t-he” decision Kemp has to make.
“Everybody hopes he runs in ‘26, but he’s not really given an indication right now as to what he does.”
During an interview this week with Martha Zoller, a conservative radio host who once worked for Kemp, the GOP governor — who’s been busy trying to pass tort reform before the end of the Georgia Legislature’s session in April — offered no indication about his future moves.
At the same time, he didn’t waste the opportunity to remind listeners about his role in Georgia’s elections last cycle.
“I tell people, Martha, my focus right now is on my day job. I got two responsibilities outside my family and my business, and that is, number one is I’m the governor of the great state of Georgia,” he said.
“And we made a commitment during this last campaign cycle, when I was helping House candidates, helping President Trump win Georgia and lot of other good people on the ballot, that we would deliver on the things that we were promising. And that’s what I’m focused on doing the next two and a half months during the legislative session.”
Kemp is under some pressure to challenge Ossoff.
Sen. Tim Scott (R-S.C.), chair of the Senate Republicans’ campaign arm, told Semafor last month that “we are looking for a way to make our No. 1 recruit a senator,” adding that Kemp “would be the best candidate in Georgia we’ve had for a very long time.”
The conservative Club for Growth released polling last month offering hypothetical match-ups between Ossoff and a handful of Republican candidates. Kemp was the only Republican who beat Ossoff in a head-to-head match-up scenario.
“I think any conversation about a challenger to Jon Ossoff starts with Brian Kemp,” said Stephen Lawson, a Republican strategist who worked on former Sen. Kelly Loeffler’s (R-Ga.) 2020 campaign. “He would be, hands down, the best candidate to take on and, I believe, defeat Jon Ossoff.”
If Kemp decides against the challenge, several contenders are waiting in the wings.
Rep. Buddy Carter (R-Ga.) and state Insurance Commissioner John King have both expressed interest in the race, and Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.) is leaving the door open to run for the Senate or governor.
Ryan Mahoney, a senior political adviser to Rep. Rich McCormick (R-Ga.), confirmed to The Hill that the congressman was mulling a bid.
“Jon Ossoff partnered with Joe Biden to enact a radical agenda that spurred crippling inflation and historic illegal immigration,” Mahoney said in a statement. “Of course Dr. McCormick is considering a run for Senate. Georgians deserve a champion for their families, our values, and America’s future.”
Another name that has been floated is Rep. Mike Collins (R-Ga.), a two-term congressman from Jackson, Ga., who’s gained attention for sponsoring the Laken Riley Act, which President Trump signed into law last month.
“I support the Draft Kemp movement,” Collins told The Hill in a statement. “Our governor can win that seat. But if he takes a pass, I’ll talk with President Trump and see who he needs us to support to make sure he has another vote in the Senate.”
Joanna Rodriguez, a spokesperson for the Senate Republicans’ campaign arm, said that while Kemp would be the strongest GOP candidate on paper, a number of Republicans could keep the race competitive.
“We do feel like we have a very deep bench in Georgia of talent. It is a very solidly red state, and so while Brian Kemp would be the most formidable candidate, absolutely, it is still a very competitive race, regardless of who our nominee ends up being,” she said.
If Kemp doesn’t run, Republicans expressed confidence but expect a close race.
“Somebody that doesn’t carry the name ID and reputation and financing of Brian Kemp is going to be in a dogfight against Jon Ossoff, but folks know that he’s beatable. Georgia is a center-right state,” said Cole Muzio, a Kemp ally who is the president of Frontline Policy Council and Frontline Policy Action.
Erickson predicted it would be a “messy primary” if Kemp doesn’t run.
Democrats, for their part, see Ossoff as a formidable candidate.
“Sen. Ossoff has quickly established himself as a workhorse in the Senate, and no matter who Republicans nominate, they’re going to find that they face a difficult road ahead in this campaign, because of the strength of Sen. Ossoff’s record on behalf of his state, as well as the fact that he is a proven and formidable campaigner who knows how to win tough races,” David Bergstein, a spokesperson for the Senate Democrats’ campaign arm, told The Hill.
One looming variable is what role Trump might play, if any, in the GOP primary.
Trump and Kemp haven’t always seen eye to eye after the governor and Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger (R) rejected efforts to overturn the 2020 election results in Trump’s favor.
Kemp received Trump’s endorsement in his first bid for governor in 2018, but the president backed former Sen. David Perdue (R-Ga.) in the GOP primary against Kemp during the governor’s 2022 reelection bid. Kemp went on to handily defeat Perdue by more than 50 points in the primary.
The rift bubbled up again last year when Trump railed against Kemp on Truth Social, noting Kemp’s wife’s remarks that she would write in her husband’s name in the presidential race. The GOP governor pushed back at Trump on social platform X, saying “leave my family out of it.”
The two have since worked to patch up their relationship, sharing kind remarks about each other while touring storm damage following Hurricane Helene months later. The two were also seen together at Trump’s Mar-a-Lago resort in Florida last month ahead of Inauguration Day.
“Everything’s been positive,” a Georgia GOP operative who requested anonymity to speak candidly said of the relationship between the two men, adding “there’s been no indication that the, you know, relationship would sour or anything like that.”
Republicans don’t want to lose an opportunity to defeat Ossoff because of their candidate.
The GOP felt it had a plum opportunity to beat Sen. Raphael Warnock (D-Ga.) during the 2022 cycle. Trump endorsed former football star Herschel Walker, who won the GOP primary but whose personal controversies dogged him in the general election.
Jay Morgan, a lobbyist and former executive director for the state GOP, noted many positions, including Senate, governor and lieutenant governor, would be on the ballot in the state next year.
“You go right down the line, so it’s going to have to be a team effort, and nobody wants a statewide candidate who’s the weak link,” he said. “We’ve gone down that road.”
