Drones are turning up everywhere.
From drug traffickers and terrorist organizations to the world’s largest and most established governments, military, special reconnaissance and intelligence operations are rapidly adopting, deploying, iterating and redeploying drones.
But drones aren’t just showing up on the battlefield. Civilian sightings are becoming more frequent — most recently causing concern when several large, mysterious drones were spotted flying overhead in New Jersey, New York and Pennsylvania.
Between military, do-it-yourself and civilian technology, we’re seeing drones pop up by the thousands and potentially millions in single instances. And while, in many cases, this has captured the imagination of bystanders, it should also raise a red flag for those in the security community.
The U.S., Germany and the UK, as well as adversaries like Russia, China and Iran, are driving a massive expansion in the military use of drone technology. And with the relatively cheap cost and speed with which these drones can be developed compared to a multi-million-dollar missile, it’s not hard to appreciate why they’ve become so popular.
We’re seeing countries like Israel and the Netherlands designing field-able rucksack-sized drones for tactical reconnaissance and attack. And the U.S. Department of Defense’s Replicator Initiative seeks to build thousands of autonomous drone systems designed to overwhelm traditional air and maritime forces.
Recent conflicts have offered a glimpse into just what this technology looks like in the warzone environment. Pro-democracy forces in the Myanmar civil war are buying and upskilling drones, drawing on lessons and insights relayed from Ukrainian forces. And Ukraine recently ordered a staggering 1 million drones to defend against Russia, which has been using Iranian-made kamikaze drones.
At the same time the U.S. and allies look to accelerate the design and deployment of drones they must also prepare to defend against similar adversarial technologies on the battlefield.
Drone warfare to date has featured a vast array of technologies that span the full gamut from make-shift retrofitted commercial drones to state-of-the-art autonomous, unmanned aerial technology. The key to accelerating production lies in harnessing and maximizing existing private technology with robust military programs and public investment.
The U.S. has a head start, planning to spend approximately $1 billion on massive programs like the Replicator Initiative over the next two years to build and launch air- and sea-based drones.
While volunteer forces in places like Ukraine have bootstrapped drones with relative success, larger-scale, tactical deployments will require a greater degree of sophistication and standardization. Research and development for drones with different functions, such as surveillance or kinetic warfare, as well as drone networking capabilities, are key to maturing our nation’s drone warfare technology.
Programs like the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency’s Rapid Experimental Missionized Autonomy are investing millions to enhance commercial and stock military drones with autonomous functionality. These next gen drones will leverage AI and 5G, as well as innovative energy technologies to enable autonomous swarming and virtually unlimited air time.
We’ve already seen technology and experience sharing amongst allies, which underscores the potential for the reverse scenario — the interception, theft or copycatting of drone research, intellectual property and tactics. U.S. drones have been stolen; sensitive military documents pertaining to drones have circulated on the darkweb; and similar engines have shown up in adversaries’ drones. As investment increases and drone technology becomes more advanced, the U.S. will need to build in more safeguards against these risks.
Drone supply chains are also vulnerable to adversarial influence, manipulation and espionage as well as traditional supply chain risks like product shortages. The U.S. military must be able to identify all of the suppliers and component parts involved in the production of its drones in order to monitor and mitigate potential software or cyber risks. Complete supply chain mapping will also allow the U.S. to ensure secure and uninterrupted manufacturing.
Technology to counter adversarial drone capabilities is equally as important. The defense industrial base has already developed technologies that are in use today, and constantly seek to improve those capabilities. The Marines and expeditionary Army units, for example, carry counter drone craft that employ electronic warfare and kinetic capabilities. DARPA is also testing new defensive capabilities.
We’re witnessing, in real-time, the crystallization of a new form of warfare on a uniquely large and diverse scale that’s increasingly overlapping with civilian spaces. Drones offer enormous tactical and strategic opportunities for U.S. operations, but establishing a competitive lead and protecting innovations gained along the way requires a deliberate roadmap of investment, research, development and risk management.
Derek Lemke is senior vice president of product intelligence at Exiger, which specializes in AI-powered third-party and supply chain risk management.
