House Republicans are growing increasingly skeptical that they can advance a framework for President Trump’s ambitious legislative agenda by the end of the week, with internal disagreements over the details putting the GOP in jeopardy of blowing through another self-imposed deadline.
House leaders — feeling pressure from the Senate, which is set to move an alternative, slimmed-down plan on Wednesday — have insisted that progress is being made.
The House GOP is trying to rally around “one big, beautiful bill” that would include tax cuts, border measures and energy priorities. But clear cracks are emerging, fueling doubts among lawmakers that the key vote will happen on schedule.
Rep. Jodey Arrington (R-Texas), the chair of the House Budget Committee, revealed to House Republicans on Tuesday that his committee would take action on the legislation on Thursday.
But the budget resolution framework Arrington outlined received swift pushback from Rep. Jason Smith (R-Mo.), the chair of the tax-writing Ways and Means Committee.
Arrington’s blueprint included a $4.5 trillion budgetary cap on how much it would cost to extend Trump’s 2017 tax cuts, a figure Smith said wouldn’t be enough. It also outlined a $1.5 trillion floor for spending cuts with a target of cutting $2 trillion.
Smith, without mentioning the Texas lawmaker by name, accused Arrington of not being supportive of Trump’s agenda.
“Let me just say that a 10-year extension of President Trump’s expiring provisions is over $4.7 trillion according to CBO,” Smith told reporters, referring to the Congressional Budget Office (CBO). “Anything less would be saying that President Trump is wrong on tax policy.”
The two lawmakers must work closely together, since Arrington’s panel is tasked with essentially advancing the framework that Smith later will use to craft specific language on tax cuts and other issues.
Near unanimity will be required for Republicans to send the bill to Trump’s desk since the slim majorities are attempting to do through a special reconciliation process that bypasses the threat of a Democratic filibuster in the Senate.
Thursday’s ambitious target has several GOP lawmakers rolling their eyes.
“It’s pretty unlikely,” one House GOP member said of the budget resolution advancing this week, adding that “there’s a lot of frustration” across the conference at the fiscal hawks seeking to secure a higher baseline for budget cuts.
Even with the pressure from the Senate, Arrington’s announcement of a Thursday markup in the closed-door House GOP meeting was somewhat of a surprise to leaders who had been in the thick of negotiations for the last week.
According to two sources in the room, when the Budget Committee chair said that the markup would be on Thursday, he turned to Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) to ask if that would be OK. Johnson responded that he was ready to go.
The quick movement also comes as clear disagreements remain among members, including fiscal hawks who are demanding deep cuts and aren’t confident their leaders will back them up.
“I’ve heard ‘trust me’ before, and have been disappointed,” said Rep. Eric Burlison (R-Mo.), a member of the House Freedom Caucus. “We were never gonna do a Christmas omnibus, and then we did. We weren’t going to fund the, you know … Ukraine until we fixed our own borders, and then we did.”
“I’m from Missouri, you have to show me,” Burlison continued. “And so far, I haven’t seen an appetite to cut spending. Until I’ve shown evidence and proof … I’m gonna be very skeptical.”
Another House Republican noted that a number of hard-line Republicans sit on the Budget Committee, which raises questions not only about whether the panel can advance a resolution, but whether what it advances can win 218 GOP votes on the House floor.
“I don’t know the specifics but if it can pass the committee I don’t know if it can pass the House or Senate,” the GOP lawmaker said.
These divides raise the odds that the Senate might take the lead on legislation.
Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) is forging ahead with his slimmed-down budget resolution, arguing the thorny tax provisions can be addressed in a second bill.
But despite that threat, House GOP leaders are sticking by their timeline.
Johnson said “I hope so” when asked about releasing the budget resolution Thursday night, telling reporters: “The markup is planned for Thursday, so we’ve got to back up the calendar and do it that way, but stay tuned.”
House Majority Leader Steve Scalise (R-La.) predicted that the budget resolution would be made public “by tomorrow,” citing committee rules, which require that measures are released 24 hours ahead of markups. He did, however, concede that the proposed course of action is “aggressive.”
“It’s aggressive, it’s not a stretch,” Scalise said. “But you know, this whole process is an aggressive agenda. But look, Trump’s moving in a very aggressive way in his presidency.”
Scalise told reporters that House Republicans are “down to the final two pieces,” including figuring out the floor for spending cuts and the ceiling for the amount of money each panel can spend in the package — two of the biggest matters lawmakers have had to grapple with.
Asked about the gap between Arrington’s framework and what Smith wants, Johnson claimed to be inching closer to a resolution.
“I can’t show all the cards right now,” Johnson said, “but we are very close to an acceptable number for both those parties.”
