The House GOP’s budget resolution is hanging in the balance as a handful of hardliners withhold support for the measure, setting the stage for a high-stakes committee vote on Thursday.
At least six Republicans on the House Budget Committee remained undecided Wednesday afternoon on whether they will support the budget resolution when the panel considers it on Thursday, a number far larger than the two GOP lawmakers the conference can afford to lose and still clear the measure, assuming all Democrats vote “no.”
Hardline conservatives and some other Republicans are pushing for changes to the measure and commitments on spending cuts, a dynamic that is threatening the path forward for the resolution.
“Tomorrow will be a big day,” Rep. Ralph Norman (R-S.C.), one of the Budget Committee holdouts, told reporters. “If it doesn’t go, that puts us back at ground zero.”
Some Budget Committee members, to be sure, were optimistic that the budget resolution would ultimately make it out of the panel on Thursday. But the last-minute negotiating could throw a wrench into the process, forcing Republican leaders into the balancing act of placating hardline conservatives while protecting vulnerable moderates.
“We are having some last-minute conversations,” Rep. Jay Obernolte (R-Calif.) said. “There were a few of us that, you know it’s very complicated, there are a lot of dials and we just want to make sure we get it right.”
Asked if he was confident the budget resolution would clear the panel on Thursday, the California Republican responded: “I do.”
House Republicans on Wednesday released their long-awaited budget resolution following days of logjam.
It outlines a $1.5 trillion floor for spending cuts across committees, $300 billion in additional spending for the border and defense, and a $4.5 trillion cap on the deficit impact of the Republicans’ plan to extend Trump’s 2017 tax cuts.
Republicans are looking to use budget reconciliation to pass President Trump’s legislative agenda — including tax cuts, border funding and energy policy — since the process, if successful, will allow the party to circumvent Democratic opposition in the Senate.
Passing a budget resolution unlocks reconciliation. But Republicans are already facing steep hurdles as hardliners on the panel ask for even more specifics about what will be in the final product, far beyond what is typical for the first step of the process.
Norman — who is also a member of the conservative House Freedom Caucus — said he wants Medicaid work requirements and block grants to be on the table. Without those considerations, Norman argued, House Republicans will not be able to reach $2 trillion in cuts to mandatory spending, which was included as a target in the budget resolution released Wednesday morning.
According to an estimate from the Ways and Means Committee, Medicaid work requirements could generate $100 billion in savings over 10 years.
The South Carolina Republican said he would not support the budget resolution if it remained in its current form.
Rep. Chip Roy (R-Texas), another Freedom Caucus member who sits on the Budget Committee, meanwhile, said there are “four or five pretty key variables that I still need to know answers to.”
One of those questions, he said, revolves around which energy subsidies would be rolled back as part of the reconciliation package. Roy said he would like a commitment that “a vast majority” of the energy subsidies in the Democrats’ Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), enacted in 2023, to be repealed, while noting that some provisions may need to remain intact because they are important to constituents in some GOP-led districts across the country.
“I want to see what the specific result and whether the vast majority of those subsidies are gonna be gone, because right now I’m not getting that firm commitment yet,” Roy said.
Those demands, though, clash with the interests of moderates and swing-seat Republicans who believe some of the green tax credit provisions are important to their districts.
The Texas Republican said he also needs to investigate how serious leadership is about cutting spending above the $1.5 trillion floor included in the budget resolution, and how the $300 billion in spending for the border and defense will impact the upcoming government funding fight.
“I’m disappointed the [spending cut floor] number’s not higher, and I’m disappointed we don’t have more clarity on — I think what we really need to see with respect to those subsidies that are so damaging,” Roy said. “So we’ll see.”
Leadership, meanwhile, appears to be closing the door on firm commitments for the budget resolution. Asked if he was making changes to appease the hardliners, Johnson told reporters “no, we’re not — we can’t make any promises on the final product.”
“This is what the committees do and all of the various caucuses, everybody talks together to come up with a final resolution,” he added. “So I’m open to all ideas but we haven’t made any final decisions on that yet.”
Some lawmakers, however, are throwing cold water on that notion.
“The bill is gonna reflect what it takes to get the votes,” a House Republican told The Hill.
Conversations continued in the Capitol Wednesday night about how to get the budget resolution through committee. Some lawmakers are predicting that Thursday’s meeting to debate the resolution could run for hours, with lawmakers considering change after change.
“Right now, what you’re hearing, that the chairman feels like he’s got enough votes to move this through, and they’ll have a long markup, it’ll probably be 10, 12 hours tomorrow,” said Rep. Kevin Hern (R-Okla.), the House GOP policy chair.
Obernolte, however, said committee members could have an agreement negotiated before the meeting, then move a sweeping amendment that includes the alterations. That solution, Obernolte said, could prevent a spectacle of a marathon debate.
“I think the plan is to get all the changes negotiated before the markup,” Obernolte said. “If you’re wondering if we’re gonna have a bunch of Republican amendments being offered separately, I don’t think that’s the plan. I don’t know for sure… author’s amendment, an amendment in the nature of a substitute.”
Even if the resolution does squeak through the Budget Committee, it faces potential headwinds on the House floor, where moderates are voicing concerns about the Medicaid changes, and conservatives are teeing off on the floor figure for spending cuts as unsubstantial.
“President Trump has said he really doesn’t want to touch Medicaid so I’m not sure how they’re gonna come up with the cuts,” Rep. Andrew Garbarino (R-N.Y.) said.
Rep. Eric Burlison (R-Mo.), meanwhile, said he was “disappointed” and “a lean no” when asked about the budget resolution, arguing that the $1.5 trillion floor for spending cuts was too low.
“I’m not supporting it right now,” echoed Rep. Victoria Spartz (R-Ind.), responding “[a] variety of things” when asked about her qualms.
Despite the concerns with the budget resolution, members of the powerful committee are holding their fire until Thursday’s meeting, which could determine whether House Republicans move forward with their current plan, or are catapulted back to square one.
“It’s like a pie. Let’s see all the ingredients in it, see if the still eatable, and we’ll go from there,” Norman said. “I’m not gonna commit to anything. I have held my vote until the discussions tomorrow.”
Emily Brooks and Aris Folley contributed.
