The US housing market is splitting down the middle, with buyers scoring sweet deals in some states while getting clobbered in others. Forget a one-size-fits-all recovery — where you live decides if you’re haggling for a steal or duking it out in a bidding war.
Nationwide, the stash of homes for sale is still playing catch-up. The National Association of Realtors says January’s existing-home stock was 16% shy of where it stood five years back.
Blame homeowners clinging to dirt-cheap mortgage rates — they’ve been bolted in place, scared to trade up and face today’s pricey loans. But that grip’s loosening as life forces more folks to move, nudging supply upward.
Dig deeper, and the map’s a patchwork mess.
Texas is drowning in listings — Realtor.com pegs its for-sale pile 20% above pre-pandemic days. Florida and Colorado are swimming in extra homes too.
Meanwhile, up in the Northeast and Midwest, it’s a ghost town — 15 states, including New Jersey and Pennsylvania, are stuck with less than half their old normal.
What’s driving this split? For starters, builders went wild down south. The National Association of Home Builders clocked 118,000 unsold, move-in-ready homes last December — the fattest stack since 2009.
Florida and Texas soaked up most of that action, with permitting stats showing the Sunshine State’s housing stock ballooning 15% since 2020, Brad O’Connor, chief economist at Florida Realtors told the Wall Street Journal.
Trouble is, buyers aren’t biting. Mortgage rates are sky-high, and those shiny new builds are gathering dust, bloating inventories.
Flip the script in states like Illinois, where red tape and sky-high construction costs choke new projects. Existing homes? Forget it.
Despite many homeowners in the state wanting to move, the limited supply and inflated prices leave them with little option but to stay, Jeff Baker, head honcho at Illinois Realtors told The Journal. Supply’s jammed tight.
Then there’s the mortgage lock-in twist — t’s fading faster in some spots.
Down south, 21% of mortgages were at 6% or higher by Q3 last year, compared to 18% in the Northeast, Chris Porter of John Burns Research and Consulting added. This is due more homes having swapped hands in the South since rates spiked, thanks to folks still flocking there. Plus, Southerners are a tad more likely to own outright, per 2023 Census guesses — mortgage-free sellers can dodge new loans and jump ship easier.
Overvaluation’s another buzzkill. Sunbelt states like Florida rode a pandemic moving frenzy, with median home values spiking 64% in five years, per Redfin.
Illinois and New York? Just 42% and 17% bumps.
But Florida’s party’s crashing — insurance costs are nuts, and owning a home now eats 44% of local paychecks, up from 28% in 2019, says the John Burns Affordability Index. With migration cooling, the high rollers propping up prices are thinning out.
Good news for bargain hunters: Texas and its oversupplied buddies might see prices tank if rates don’t budge.
But don’t hold your breath in the Northeast or Midwest — low stock there’s got prices locked in.
