Democrats are eager to see former North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper (D) jump into the Tar Heel State’s Senate race next year, seeing him as the most formidable challenger to Sen. Thom Tillis (R).
Cooper said at the conclusion of his second term as governor that he would look at running for Senate as one of several options ahead of him, and speculation of him getting into the race has only risen since then, with the head of Senate Democrats’ campaign arm reportedly praising him to donors.
A popular two-term governor of the purple state, Cooper would bring name ID to a race in a state where Democrats haven’t held a Senate seat in a decade and that President Trump won by 3 points in 2024.
“If Roy Cooper decides to run, it would really make the race one of the most competitive races in the country next year, could be the most of any Senate race in the country,” said Democratic strategist Doug Wilson.
Tillis won reelection in 2020 with a less than 2-point edge in what was the most expensive Senate race in the country that year. Higher up on the ballot, Trump narrowly beat former President Biden in the battleground.
This cycle, Tillis is on track to be one of the most vulnerable Senate incumbents, facing potentially tough competition from both sides of the aisle. He was among several Republican incumbents who faced pressure from the right over Trump’s controversial Cabinet nominees — and, now that he’s voted to confirm them, Democrats see a more promising pickup opportunity.
A March report from the left-leaning Public Policy Polling found Tillis with a dismal approval rating of 25 percent, compared to a 48 percent approval rating for Trump. And the Republican was trailing Cooper in a hypothetical Senate match-up, 47 percent to 43 percent.
A December poll from the Florida-based firm Victory Insights found Lara Trump, the president’s daughter-in-law, would “likely crush” Tillis in a GOP primary, though she hasn’t expressed formal interest in the role. In a head-to-head with Cooper, Tillis trailed by 1 point.
The map of Senate seats up for grabs in 2026 also will send more eyes to Tillis. Democrats have relatively few serious pickup opportunities next year, making the North Carolina race, along with the one in Maine for Sen. Susan Collins’s (R) seat, key to Democratic hopes of cutting into the 53-seat Republican Senate majority.
The Cook Political Report rates the race as “lean Republican” but notes Cooper is “Democrats’ dream candidate to challenge Sen. Thom Tillis, and were he to run, Tillis would immediately become the most endangered GOP incumbent of the cycle.”
Democrats acknowledged the difficulty Cooper could face in the race. Wilson noted voters in the state recently have tended to vote Republican for federal offices and Democratic for state-level offices.
The Tar Heel State has gone red in every presidential race since 2012, and both its Senate seats have been held by the GOP since Tillis won his first term in 2014.
But Cooper narrowly ousted then-incumbent Gov. Pat McCrory (R) in a tight 2016 race that took a month to call and has become a bright spot for Democrats in the battleground. He bested his Trump-endorsed Republican challenger in 2020 by more than 4 points and, in a sign of his potency in the party, he was floated in the veepstakes to join former Vice President Kamala Harris on the 2024 White House ticket.
He withdrew himself from consideration, though, contending it was “just not the right time for me or my state.” Now that he’s left office, Cooper is set to start an eight-week teaching job at the Harvard School of Public Health in late March.
Wilson pointed to former Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan’s (R) unsuccessful run for Senate against Sen. Angela Alsobrooks (D) last year despite being a widely popular governor in a blue state. But North Carolina is a much more competitive state.
“If anybody could do it, I think [Cooper] would have a good shot,” he said.
Aimy Steele, a former Democratic North Carolina state House candidate who runs the New North Carolina Project, which works to drive Black and brown voter turnout, said she would expect boosted turnout from minority voters based on Cooper’s record as governor.
“He’s someone that everyone can see themselves supporting not only Black and brown people, but also white people, people who are just a diverse background, regardless of their race,” she said.
Cooper performed particularly well with Black voters in his 2020 reelection campaign, winning 92 percent of their votes, according to a CNN exit poll.
Cynthia Wallace, who leads a nonprofit working to boost rural turnout called the New Rural Project, noted that Cooper is originally from a rural area and demonstrated an “authentic” connection to rural voters despite Democrats’ base of support typically being in cities.
“I don’t hear a lot of negative commentary about him out in the countryside,” she said.
North Carolina Republican strategist Jim Blaine took issue with the recent PPP polling showing Cooper ahead of the incumbent, pointing out past criticism of the pollster.
“Tillis’ numbers aren’t great but, considering the source, are far from fatal,” Blaine said on the social platform X.
The race “would be tied if Tillis had the level of support with the GOP that Cooper is getting from Dems,” he added, arguing the Republican could get there with another endorsement from Trump, who backed Tillis in the 2020 cycle.
If Cooper doesn’t run, Democrats could have another option in former Rep. Wiley Nickel (D-N.C.), who won his House seat in a tight 2022 race.
But after new congressional maps threatened a handful of the state’s House Democrats, Nickel decided against seeking reelection and floated a future Senate run.
Sabato’s Crystal Ball said in an analysis last month that Nickel “would seem to have a head start” in “a Cooper-less Democratic primary.” The election handicapper rated the race as one of just three 2026 Senate toss-ups.
But if the former governor does get in, he likely “clears the field,” said Jason Roberts, a professor of political science at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill. And while Cooper isn’t necessarily Democrats’ only chance of a flip, Roberts added, he could be their best.
“He’s a very formidable candidate if he decides to run. It seems like he’s going to run, and I think that sets up a blockbuster race.”
