The federal Conservatives have delivered another blow to the Liberals, clinching a decisive victory in the Cloverdale–Langley byelection.
On the evening of Chrystia Freeland’s resignation from cabinet, Conservative candidate and former member of Parliament Tamara Jansen secured the British Columbia riding for her party.
Jansen won the riding with a landslide Monday night. Unofficial results show the Conservatives received 66.3% of the vote, followed by the Liberals at 16.0%, and the NDP at 12.5%.
Freeland’s surprising resignation followed Liberal housing minister Sean Fraser’s announcement that he would not seek re-election in the next federal election and would be leaving the Liberal cabinet.
The Liberals ran Madison Fleischer as the candidate after former Liberal MP John Aldag announced he would resign as an MP to become a B.C. NDP candidate in the 2024 provincial election. Aldag eventually lost the race to the provincial Conservatives.
Cloverdale–Langley has been a contested seat, swapping between the Liberals and Conservatives. Jansen beat Aldag, who had been elected in 2015, in the 2019 election by around 1,500 votes. The 2021 federal election saw Aldag unseat Jansen by just over 1,500 votes.
Only 14,979 of the riding’s 92,061 registered electors, or 16.27%, turned up to vote. The 2021 General Election in Cloverdale–Langley City saw 53,758 votes cast out of a total 88,348 electors – a nearly 61% voter turnout, although byelections are notorious for low turnout.
Polls gave the Conservatives a comfortable chance of winning as of Sunday. The popular poll aggregator 338Canada estimated that the Conservatives would receive 53% of the popular vote, followed by the Liberals at 27%, and the NDP at 17%.
However, a variable that pollsters may not have been able to account for for was the Canada Post strike, which resulted in electors not receiving voter information cards. Canada Post workers were ordered back to work the day following the byelection.
Voter information cards are not required to vote, although they do notify people about polling dates, times, and locations.
The 2012 federal electoral boundaries redistribution created the federal electoral district in the Metro Vancouver area of British Columbia of Cloverdale—Langley City, which came into effect during the 2015 Canadian federal election.
However, the borders were redefined following the 2022 Canadian federal electoral redistribution.
The British Columbia riding flipping to the Conservatives follows a nationwide surge of support for the party.
As of Sunday, the Conservatives are projected to win 43% of the popular vote nationally, trailed by the Liberals at 22%, and NDP at 19%.
The Conservatives are projected to win 226 seats. A majority government requires 172 seats. A two-thirds majority, often referred to as a supermajority, requires 226.
