Does Russian President Vladimir Putin understandably feel threatened by the growing number of former USSR countries that have become democracies and are trying to align with the West and its values? Or is he a dictator with a Hitleresque dream of expanding his power, influence and territory no matter how much money or how many Russian lives it costs?
Your answer could indicate what you think about the recent push for a peace agreement.
President Trump and Vice President Vance seem to embrace the first scenario, while Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, Ukrainians, most of Europe, many traditional U.S. conservatives and even most liberals hold the second.
So, it’s a good time to compare Hitler’s military aggressions and broken treaties and promises with Putin’s to see how similar they are.
Hitler longed for the land, influence and power Germany once possessed. Similarly, Putin has been quoted saying, “The breakup of the Soviet Union was the greatest geopolitical tragedy of the 20th century.” He may not want to recreate the USSR per se, but it’s clear he wants most of the nearby countries directly or indirectly under his thumb — just as Belarus is.
Hitler continued and expanded a major military buildup far exceeding what the country needed to defend itself. That raised alarms in the West. The same is true for Russia — and China. Russian military spending increased significantly before invading Crimea in 2014, reaching 5.4 percent of GDP by 2016. It dropped when Trump was first elected president but exploded again in 2021, just before Russia invaded Ukraine.
Hitler worked to sway public opinion and political leaders in neighboring countries to create sympathy to the Nazi cause. That’s how he was able to absorb Austria into Germany in March 1938. Putin appears to be doing the same thing. Several countries have complained that Russia is covertly backing pro-Russia propaganda and candidates.
Hitler began his land grab by demanding the Sudetenland, which was part of Czechoslovakia, claiming he was just uniting historically German peoples. Germany, Italy, France and Great Britain met in Munich in September 1938 to resolve the issue. In an effort to avoid war, Britain and France pressured Czechoslovakia, which was excluded from the negotiations — sound familiar? — to hand over the Sudetenland. Likewise, Putin has claimed that Ukraine was always part of the true Russia, and he is just reclaiming that territory.
Before leaving Munich, British Prime Minister Neville Chamberlain and Hitler agreed to work for peace. Chamberlain returned to Great Britain claiming, “I believe it is peace for our time.”
But Hitler wasn’t satisfied with the Sudetenland. He wanted all of Czechoslovakia and took it. Britain and France didn’t respond. So, Hitler invaded Poland, which drew Great Britian and France into war.
Winston Churchill had warned Chamberlain, “You were given the choice between war and dishonour. You chose dishonour, and you will have war.” Churchill was right.
Even as Hitler was moving his military closer to the other countries’ borders, he denied he planned to attack, then he did exactly that.
Again, like Hitler, Putin alleged his soldiers were participating in “military exercises” in Belarus, just north of Kyiv. It looked suspiciously like he planned to attack. Putin denied it repeatedly and then attacked on Feb. 24.
Having lived through several broken Putin promises, Zelensky, Ukrainians and Europeans believe Putin cannot be trusted — as Zelensky tried to explain to Trump and Vance. They didn’t want to hear it.
But even if a deal is reached, Putin is playing the long game. He knows Trump will be out in four years while Putin will be president for as long as he lives. He can wait till Trump leaves.
In fact, since his initial Ukrainian offensive failed — a Hitler-inspired “blitzkrieg” intended to capture the capitol in a few days — Putin could use the intervening four Trump years to rebuild his military, resupply his weapons and replenish his finances from the sale of Russian oil and natural gas. And he will be a wiser and better prepared aggressor next time.
Europeans lived through Hitler’s aggressions, broken promises and land grabs. They can see the pattern and learned the lessons that led to World War II. When a dictator who longs for the land and power of his country’s past begins growing his military and creating international turmoil, trouble is coming. No matter how many peace deals may be signed, they aren’t worth the paper they’re printed on if the dictator really wants land instead of peace and his opponents aren’t willing to say no — and back it up. Just ask Churchill.
Merrill Matthews is a public policy and political analyst and the co-author of “On the Edge: America Faces the Entitlements Cliff.” Follow him on X@MerrillMatthews.
