I will not be sorry to see 2024 go. It was a year that felt as though the world was spinning off its axis. The unexpected happened at home and abroad, auguring a new year of chaos and civil unrest, but perhaps a ray of hope.
Closest to home, a tepid Kamala Harris lost to Donald Trump, who — despite being a convicted felon, an indicted election denier and a mishandler of classified documents — was the preferred candidate to manage immigration and the economy. It was an amazing comeback for Trump. Convicted in Manhattan of 34 felony counts of fraud, indicted in D.C. and Georgia for his attempt to subvert the outcome of the 2020 election and in Florida for a clear case of mishandling classified documents after he left office, Trump managed to cheat the hangman by getting elected president.
And chalk one up to the lassitude of Attorney General Merrick Garland in waiting almost two years to get the ball rolling on Trump’s involvement in the events of Jan. 6, and the fecklessness of Special Counsel Jack Smith in risking the classified documents case before an unfriendly Florida judge. And give an assist to the partisan and ethically challenged Supreme Court, willing to grant Trump an immunity nowhere expressed in the text or the values of the Constitution.
Not yet elected, Trump launched a raft of putative Cabinet appointments, all loyal in the extreme; some problematic, and others not remotely qualified, lacking in either experience, probity or both. Former Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Fla.), his original appointee as attorney general, was so ethically challenged that he had to withdraw. There is a name for government by the incompetent. It is kakistocracy.
The most game-changing events took place in the Middle East. For much of the year, the world’s attention was focused on Israel’s response to the savage events of Oct. 7, 2023, which included relentless attacks in Gaza that not only devastated Hamas, killed its principal political and military leaders along with many its combatants, but also caused an additional estimated 25,000 civilian deaths and untold suffering. Israel’s global reputation came under fire with accusations of genocide and crimes against humanity. The International Criminal Court even issued an arrest warrant for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
The year ended sadly with no return of the remaining hostages held by Hamas, and it is unclear how many are still alive.
Possible good news is that, as the year went on, the ground in the Middle East shifted. Israel pushed Iran onto its back foot. Iran’s president and foreign minister died in a mysterious helicopter crash, and its economy is in tatters. The petro-giant was unable to provide Iranians with sufficient fuel.
Most key, Israel neutered Iran’s principal proxies in the region. It degraded Hezbollah, long a thorn in Israel’s side, and took out a key Hamas leader who was visiting Tehran. With bombs concealed in pagers supplemented by strategic assassinations, Israel struck back effectively and proportionally.
Some good news, but no clear path forward, in Syria. After a decade of civil war, the brutal Bashar al-Assad vacated the presidential palace. Assad fled to Moscow, where his wife reportedly said she would file for divorce and move back to England. A neutered Hezbollah, a Russia distracted by the war in Ukraine, and a debilitated Iran were unable to prevent Assad’s ouster after more than a half-century of repressive dynastic rule.
Israel is surgically focused on another Iranian proxy, the Houthis in Yemen. Ideally, the Houthis will go the way of Hamas and Hezbollah. Whatever the outcome, 2025 could well be the year that a radicalized Iran exits the scene.
South Korea is in meltdown. An ill-advised imposition of martial law by President Yoon Suk Yeol caused his impeachment and temporary loss of power. The Korean National Assembly then followed with the subsequent impeachment of the acting president, Prime Minister Han Duck-soo, a stunning development suggesting that the nation’s politics have become utterly dysfunctional. All this spells trouble for our ally, one of the top global economies, which faces the threat of a North Korea with rockets and a formidable nuclear arsenal.
The war in Ukraine will shortly complete its third anniversary, and the most recent reports on the ground are that Russia is winning. Russia made slow gains in 2024, and analysts say, if there is no peace, Putin will prevail, leaving Ukraine a failed or vassal state. With the aid of American-supplied long-range weaponry, and Biden’s authorization to launch strikes within Russia, Ukraine might have made modest gains around the Russian launching pad city of Kursk. But recent reports are of bloodied Ukrainian troops losing more than 40 percent of the hard-won land in Kursk to Russian reinforcements supplemented by North Korean soldiers.
But by the year’s end, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky signaled a receptiveness to a cease-fire in place, setting the stage for a deal. The biggest questions are whether continuing U.S. military support, along with Russia’s weakened economy, leads Putin to meet Zelensky halfway.
2024 spawned a new alignment — China, Russia, Iran and North Korea. The four are finding all sorts of ways to help one another to challenge the interests of the U.S. Even so, it was still annus horribilis for China economically; for Russia not only economically, but also its black eye in Syria; and for Iran overall.
Beyond surprise, is there a common thread to all of this? Putin and Xi see the West in decline, and perhaps they are right, but I don’t give up hope. The autocratic states to the east are not immune to political and economic problems. China and Russia are in big economic trouble, and no one knows how their problems will play out.
All this as Trump and his satrap Elon Musk decide the path on which we are headed.
Wishing everyone a happy new year.
James D. Zirin, author and legal analyst, is a former federal prosecutor in New York’s Southern District. He is also the host of the public television talk show and podcast Conversations with Jim Zirin.
