Friday’s SEC quarterfinal between Alabama and Kentucky is a classic strength-versus-strength matchup.
Alabama is the nation’s best-scoring offense and is ranked third in the country by KenPom’s adjusted offensive efficiency metric.
Kentucky ranks third overall in points per game and is the seventh-most efficient unit in the country, per KenPom.
As you’d imagine, bookmakers have hung an astronomical total for this tilt.
Not only is the 179.5-point Over/Under for Kentucky vs. Alabama the highest on Friday’s slate, but it’s a full 17 points higher than the next game (Missouri-Florida).
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Kentucky vs. Alabama odds
| Teams | Spread | Odds | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kentucky | +7.5 (-115) | +240 | o179.5 (-110) |
| Alabama | -7.5 (-105) | -300 | u179.5 (-110) |
Kentucky vs. Alabama betting preview
It’s been quite the season for the new-look SEC. Currently, 12 teams stand as locks to get into the Big Dance, with Texas sitting on the bubble.
Two of those locks, Alabama and Kentucky, will try to add to their resumes Friday night.
As things stand now, the Crimson Tide seem like a safe bet for a No. 2 seed, but a repeat as SEC champions could change things, especially if Florida or Houston slips up.
The strength of this Alabama side is its scoring ability, but the Crimson Tide are also one of the best teams in the country at getting games on their terms.
Alabama wants to engage with its opposition and turn every game into a back-and-forth tilt. The Tide rank No. 1 in the country in adjusted tempo, per KenPom, and averages 78.7 total possessions per contest.
Kentucky is more than comfortable playing at that pace, but the Wildcats’ best path to success is trying to take some of the pace out of the game.
Betting on College Basketball?
Alabama vs. Kentucky Pick
There’s no question that this total is a little inflated. When you get two of the best offenses in the country meeting, that is going to happen.
The issue with going the Occam’s Razor route for this one is that the margins for over bettors is razor thin when you’re dealing with a total this high.
One cold stretch of shooting or an adjustment by either side that slows things down could completely throw off the scoring pace needed to get to this number.
The Pick: Under 179.5 (-110, BetMGM)
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Why Trust New York Post Betting
Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.
