If anyone other than President Trump himself claims to know what antitrust policy will be under Trump 2.0, be wary.
Disregard much of the conventional wisdom that has governed corporate mergers up to now, and instead focus on one new principle: Under Trump, the metrics for approval of merger transactions will be fluid, much like the DOGE process now underway.
In other words, each deal will stand or fall not only on its own merits but also on the extra-regulatory rules the president incorporates into the mix.
For example, the administration has slapped controversial new tariffs on imports from China. But Trump himself extended the deadline that would have banned TikTok from operating in the U.S. — a surprise move designed to preserve the integrity of the popular Chinese app.
The $35 billion merger between Capital One and Discover appears to be on track. But the president’s recent comments about Big Banks could cause regulators to take a more jaundiced view of the merger, if not oppose it altogether.
In the tech sector, Hewlett Packard Enterprises agreed to acquire Juniper Networks in a $14 billion deal. But the new Trump Justice Department has just challenged the transaction. Given the evolving relationship between Trump and Big Tech, this merger could go either way.
When it comes to media, FCC Chairman Brendan Carr has signaled to America’s broadcast groups that he is on their side. Carr is poised to finally relax moribund ownership rules and permit them to expand their national footprint to compete with Big Tech. This would be a welcome nod to major TV station owners, who have been asking government to update the rules that have stifled their ability to grow through mergers and acquisitions.
Nevertheless, there are troubling signs for the proposed Paramount-Skydance Media merger. A deal that was predicted to close without incident early this year is now consumed with foreign ownership and First Amendment concerns raised by the chairman of the FCC and the president.
One of the main problems standing in the way of the Paramount deal is a strategic partnership between American-owned Skydance Media and the Chinese company Tencent. In 2017, Skydance accepted investment from the Chinese company in exchange for production and distribution assistance. Tencent is thought to be close to or controlled by the Chinese Communist Party. Given the heated policy debate on China, it would not be unreasonable for Chairman Carr to condition the FCC’s approval on Skydance’s divestiture of its Chinese partner, to avoid any foreign influence over an American media company.
Carr may not have to play the villain if the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States were to recommend such a move. This, of course, would be in addition to any additional penalties the FCC might impose on the alleged CBS violation of broadcast standards (Paramount Global was formed in 2019 when CBS Corporation and Viacom merged).
Looking beyond these proposed mergers, there is no shortage of investment capital sitting on the sidelines. For the most part, private equity firms kept their powder dry during the Biden years, when the Democratic Department of Justice rarely met a merger it seemed to like. Antitrust lawyers and investors are still talking about the travesty visited on Tegna and Standard General by the Biden FCC.
Since then, investors and companies have been champing at the bit to get into the growth and acquisition game, assuming that regulation will be relaxed under Trump. Given the prospect of a more permissive regulatory environment, confidence is high. And that alone could usher in an increase in deal-making and mergers. Coupled with favorable tax treatment and investment incentives for corporations, mergers and acquisitions under Trump could reach unprecedented levels.
But while these are extremely positive signs for a new wave of corporate consolidation, the administration has shown that it can be contrarian at times. Companies should be advised to bring more than big money to the table: they should be prepared to structure their mergers within an “America First” context that advances both political as well as public interest goals.
Indeed, mergers may not be business as usual under Trump. For many dealmakers, that alone will be a welcome change.
Adonis Hoffman served in senior legal roles at the FCC and in the U.S. House of Representatives. He writes on business, law and politics.
