Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) is emerging as one of the Democrats’ top targets in the battle for the Senate after voting for all of President Trump’s most controversial nominees.
Democrats view Tillis and Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine) as the two most vulnerable Republican incumbents of the 2026 cycle as North Carolina is a perennial purple state and Maine hosts the only Republican-held Senate seat that Kamala Harris won last year.
But North Carolina may be shaping up as a more promising pickup opportunity because of Tillis’s votes to confirm Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth, Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard and FBI Director Kash Patel.
And with limited pickup opportunities on an electoral map that favors Senate Republicans, Democrats are expected to go all in on the North Carolina race, especially if they get their top recruit, former Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper.
“It’s hard to believe that between Pete Hegseth, Kash Patel, [Robert F. Kennedy Jr.] and Tulsi Gabbard that those votes are going to age well,” said Morgan Jackson, a prominent Democratic strategist based in North Carolina. “He votes for them because he has to have Trump’s support in the primary or he can’t win. But by voting for them, it undermines his ability to get elected in the general election.”
Collins, by comparison, voted against Hegseth and Patel but voted for Gabbard.
National Republican Senatorial Committee Chair Tim Scott (R-S.C.) told GOP donors at a retreat in Palm Beach, Fla., earlier this month that the North Carolina Senate race would be the most expensive on the map, potentially costing $700 million.
That eye-popping total would surpass the $550 million spending record set in last year’s Ohio Senate race between former Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) and Trump-allied Sen. Bernie Moreno (R).
Tillis told The Hill he expects his reelection fight to cost more than $500 million and noted it was the most expensive on the Senate map when he ran in 2020 and 2014.
“It’s my own contribution for economic stimulus to the state,” he quipped.
Senate Republicans think North Carolina is likely to be a closer race than Maine, especially if Democrats convince Cooper to get into the race, because there isn’t as strong a potential Democratic challenger in Maine.
Republicans acknowledge Cooper as a former governor would attract a lot of media coverage if he jumps into the Senate race, which could require Tillis and his allies to spend more to counter it.
Collins won reelection in 2020 by nearly 10 points, despite former President Biden winning Maine by 9 points over Trump.
The Wall Street Journal reported that Tillis told Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) the evening before Hegseth’s final confirmation vote that he would vote “no” and likely sink the embattled nominee.
He eventually voted “yes” after speaking directly with Trump and White House chief of staff Susie Wiles and receiving a detailed letter from Hegseth responding directly to allegations accusing him of excessive drinking and intimidating behavior.
Tillis also voted for Gabbard and heartily backed Patel after introducing the FBI director at his confirmation hearing before the Senate Judiciary Committee.
But despite backing Trump’s nominees and broader legislative agenda, he still has to worry about a potential primary challenger next year as Trump’s MAGA voters remain skeptical about his loyalty to the president.
“One of Tillis’s biggest problems is the MAGA base does not trust him and does not like him,” Jackson said. “His favorability and unfavorability numbers have been upside-down with Republican primary voters for several years, and these are the core MAGA supporters.”
The New York Times reported earlier this month that Trump was furious with Tillis after hearing he was threatening to vote against Hegseth and asked a group of North Carolina lawmakers who were flying with him aboard Air Force One if any of them wanted his endorsement to primary the senator next year.
Brian Darling, a Republican strategist and former Senate aide, argued that Tillis has a good chance of winning reelection but cautioned he needs to do more work to shore up support among the Republican base.
“He’s someone who’s looked upon as a little bit wobbly,” he said. “I think he could shore himself up but he has a long way to go.”
Darling said Trump is unlikely to endorse Tillis before the primary, adding: “I don’t see any circumstance where Trump would jump out ahead to help Tillis.”
A Washington-based Republican strategist said it’s “possible” Tillis could face a primary challenge but noted “no one serious has come out yet.”
The source said Tillis “is talking to the White House” about his reelection and “feels like he’s doing everything he needs to to be in a good position.”
Trump’s approach to negotiating an end to the war in Ukraine, which critics have called too conciliatory toward Russia, is a major point of friction with Tillis, who has been an outspoken advocate for Ukraine.
Tillis denounced Russian President Vladimir Putin on the Senate floor last week, pushing back against Trump’s declaration that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is a “dictator” who started the war with Russia.
“Whoever believes that there is any space for Vladimir Putin and the future of a stable globe better go to Ukraine, they better go to Europe, they better invest the time to understand that this man is a cancer and the greatest threat to democracy in my lifetime,” Tillis said.
Democrats say Tillis will also come under attack in next year’s election over Trump’s funding freeze affecting the National Institutes of Health, which would hit North Carolina’s “research triangle,” which covers Raleigh, Durham and Chapel Hill.
The D.C.-based GOP strategist, however, poured water on the notion that Trump’s funding freeze is likely to materialize into a potent campaign issue.
“There’s a lot of time before that becomes an actual issue,” the source said. “Cutting government waste so far has been a very positive message” in North Carolina.
A spokesperson for the National Republican Senatorial Committee said Senate Democrats are still suffering politically from Biden’s “wasteful spending that caused inflation” and “open border policies.”
“Voters rejected them for all of it in 2024, so now vulnerable Democrat incumbents and potential candidates would rather retire or sit out a Senate run entirely than make a case for their out-of-touch policies,” the spokesperson said, referring to the announced retirements of Sens. Gary Peters (D-Mich.) and Tina Smith (D-Minn.).
