New York Gov. Kathy Hochul (D) is under increasing political pressure as she faces a likely competitive reelection fight and legal battles with President Trump.
Hochul’s approval rating has been underwater for months as she surpasses the midpoint of her first full term in office and seems likely to have a serious primary battle on the horizon from Rep. Ritchie Torres (D-N.Y.), who has become one of her sharpest critics. Presuming she gets past Torres, popular GOP Rep. Mike Lawler (R-N.Y.) seems equally likely to run and could give Republicans their best shot at winning New York’s gubernatorial race in years.
Meanwhile, Hochul may be set to take on an increasingly national profile as she faces off with Trump on key issues to her constituents.
“It is certainly something that New Yorkers have been looking for, and have been looking for, particularly from Washington, in the past two and a half months,” said one New York Democratic strategist. “But that was one flash. Can she sustain that type of war footing? I think is a serious question.”
Hochul rose to become the first female governor of New York in 2021 under unusual circumstances following the resignation of her predecessor, former Gov. Andrew Cuomo (D), who resigned from office amid multiple controversies surrounding him and his administration.
Hochul was Cuomo’s choice to serve as lieutenant governor in 2014 and was in her second term when he stepped down. She ascended to the governorship through the line of succession.
She is the first New York governor not from the heavily populated city or its outskirts in many decades, as candidates from the city have historically dominated gubernatorial races.
Yet despite winning a full term in her own right in 2022, she has struggled with her popularity among New Yorkers while in office.
Some Democrats see a mix of reasons as to why.
“I think part of it is she never introduced herself, and the other part of it is just the reality that she is not a New York City person. She’s the first governor that’s been from upstate… in a significantly long period of time,” the strategist said.
Hochul only defeated former Rep. Lee Zeldin (R-N.Y.) in the race by about 6 points, the closest gubernatorial race in the state in decades, as New York Democrats performed poorly overall. And her favorability rating has been underwhelming.
The most recent Siena College poll conducted at the end of last month showed that 39 percent of registered voters viewed her favorably, while 44 percent approved of her job performance and 48 percent disapproved.
She hasn’t had a positive favorability rating in Siena’s polling since January of last year.
A Morning Consult poll from the last quarter of 2024 found her approval rating above water with 48 percent approving and 42 percent disapproving, but only three governors up for reelection in 2026 had worse net approval ratings and one Democratic governor was less popular among their party’s voters.
As her numbers have been middling, speculation has grown that Hochul may face a primary challenge from an increasingly vocal critic in Torres, who has served in the House since 2021 and said he is considering a run for governor.
Hochul spokesperson Jen Goodman told The Hill that the governor will continue to focus on delivering results for New Yorkers as she plans for her reelection bid, making streets and subways safer, helping lower costs for taxpayers and push back against “federal overreach.”
“With a strong record of tackling the state’s toughest challenges, the Governor is prepared to bring together a winning coalition to keep moving New York forward, no matter who enters the race,” Goodman said.
Torres slammed Hochul after the 2024 presidential election as the “new Joe Biden,” nodding to pushback Biden faced to drop out of the race.
“A Democratic incumbent who is less popular in New York than Donald Trump is in grave danger of losing to a Republican in 2026 — an outcome not seen in 30 years,” he posted on X. “Waiting until it’s too late gave us a Republican President in 2024 and could give us a Republican Governor in 2026.”
Democrats said a primary challenge from Torres could make for a serious race, as he has increasingly taken on a higher profile. He has been a particularly strong voice in favor of Israel amid its war against Hamas since 2023.
But he will likely still have an uphill battle if he challenges Hochul.
“Congressman Torres is a very talented up-and-coming political star,” said Democratic strategist Jake Dilemani. “For a junior congressman, he has a very large profile, can raise a lot of money, is clearly very intelligent, talented. It’s still very tough, though to dislodge an incumbent.”
Dilemani noted that Hochul has strong infrastructure in place, noting her significant fundraising prowess as she raised more than $50 million for her 2022 race.
That strength has continued to today, as she raised more than $10 million in January between her political operation and the state Democratic Party, totaling $32.5 million raised off-cycle.
Torres has also faced some criticism over his past more left-leaning positions as he has moderated more recently, having called for “defunding the police” in 2020 and shifting on immigration. He responded to the criticism, telling Politico that he is working to reorient the party to a “rational center on public safety.”
Hochul also has a significant name recognition advantage, as a December Siena poll found almost 70 percent didn’t know Torres or had no opinion of him.
“I don’t necessarily know how Ritchie plays in the rest of the state,” said another New York Democrat. “There are Democratic primary voters outside of the island of Manhattan, and I think they will have a say on this.”
On the horizon beyond the primary, Hochul could be up for an even more competitive general election against Lawler, who has established a reputation as a more bipartisan member of the House in a highly polarized Congress. He has been well-liked and won reelection by 6 points in a district Democrats eyed to flip.
Democrats said Lawler could be a strong candidate for the general election, with one calling him “the best type of candidate” that the GOP could put forward. But the reality of New York could position Hochul still as the favorite and Lawler, or another nominee, in an uphill battle.
The Democrat noted that Lawler has managed to develop a bipartisan reputation but may need to take difficult votes in a narrow GOP House majority while eying statewide office in a blue-leaning state.
“How often is Mike Lawler not going to vote with [House Speaker] Mike Johnson?” they said.
And Hochul’s most recent standoffs with Trump could have political benefits in addition to policy ones, Democrats said.
Hochul was initially among the more conciliatory Democrats as Trump took office, saying she would look for places to work with him.
Over the past 10 days, Hochul has taken a more combative stance. She reportedly postponed a planned meeting with Trump after Attorney General Pam Bondi announced a lawsuit against New York and Hochul over its immigration policies.
And she came out even harder after Trump rescinded Biden-era approval of the controversial congestion pricing program, which has charged drivers $9 to enter Manhattan. Hochul has said the program would reduce traffic congestion and pollution.
“We’ll see you in court,” Hochul said in response to the decision, also going after Trump’s Truth Social statement in which he said in all capital letters, “Long live the king!”
“I’m here to say, New York hasn’t labored under a king in over 250 years and we sure as hell are not going to start now,” she said to applause.
Analysts said congestion pricing is a difficult issue with strong feelings on both sides, with Dilemani calling it a “hot potato.” But standing up to Trump could be an opportunity to frame it in better terms for Hochul in addition to fighting for an issue she believes in, they added.
A Morning Consult poll found six in 10 New Yorkers say Trump should allow the program to continue, but a plurality said they oppose the congestion tax, suggesting the framing of the question could drive the difference.
She also has the benefit that many of her recent policy proposals appear to be widely popular.
“I do think there’s currency in standing up to Trump, whoever the president would be,” Dilemani said. “There’s currency in looking like you’re a strong executive who doesn’t let people from out of state bully what’s going on in the state.”
