Twenty-three days into President Trump’s second administration, one thing has become clear. He is using the “fog of war” to mask his intentions, in matters both domestic and foreign.
Citing Carl von Clausewitz, U.S. Army doctrine holds that the “fog of war” is an unavoidable reality of the modern battlefield. Trump is deploying it, metaphorically speaking, as part of his diplomacy in reasserting the U.S. on the global stage.
Fog is created when “friction, chance and uncertainty” combine. When they do, it becomes difficult for “commander[s] to remain responsive, versatile, and adaptive in real time to create and seize opportunities and reduce vulnerabilities.”
“Friction,” in Trump’s world, is created by fomenting diplomatic chaos and deploying bombastic rhetoric. To understand his foreign policy, we must visualize past Trump’s fog of war and begin deciphering his desired end-states in Europe, the Middle East and the Indo-Pacific.
Trump’s fog has been fast and furious in the making. It includes repeated boasts about making Canada the 51st state, threats toward Panama over Chinese control of port facilities around the Panama Canal and contentious demands to buy Greenland from Denmark.
It can also be found in Trump’s “carrot and stick” approach toward Russian President Vladimir Putin. Also in his mostly just “stick” approach to Hamas’s leadership, especially his recent threat that “all hell will break loose” if the terrorist group does not release its remaining hostages by noon this Saturday.
Creating yet another layer of fog is Trump’s tendency to view the world first through economic lenses, and then subsequently through military ones.
To reduce illegal immigration and fentanyl trafficking, Trump threatened trade tariffs against Mexico and Canada. Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum and Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau both quickly gave in, buying themselves time by making concessions to Trump.
Trump is also demanding Ukraine pay its own way in exchange for continued U.S. military support. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent was dispatched to Kyiv to negotiate a $500 billion rare earth minerals deal with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.
The president’s assertiveness is a marked departure from former President Biden’s reactionary method of handling foreign crises. Whereas Biden was forever chasing the global agenda driven by Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping, Trump is hell-bent on driving the agenda.
Europe is struggling to grasp this new fast-paced reality emanating from Washington. U.S. leadership is back, but it is coming with a price. The White House is intent on getting out from beneath the role of “my brother’s keeper” and transitioning more to what Richard Haas described as “The Reluctant Sheriff.” Trump is demanding allies and regional partners put some skin in the game.
Brussels, like Ukraine, is going to have to begin paying more of its own way. Trump already made this clear prior to reentering the White House by telling NATO member-states he wants them to be spending 5 percent of their GDP on defending Europe.
This demand will be hammered home repeatedly this week. Newly confirmed Secretary of State Pete Hegseth began delivering it on Wednesday to his fellow defense ministers during NATO’s Ukraine Defense Contact Group meeting in Brussels.
Hegseth also apprised his colleagues that the U.S. believes a return to Ukraine’s pre-2014 borders is “unrealistic.” Trump, he added, does not support Ukraine becoming a NATO member as an end-state.
The secretary of Defense also warned the contact group that the U.S. no longer views Europe as its “primary focus,” given threats in the Indo-Pacific — and he “ruled out any U.S. deployment to Ukraine or covering peacekeeping forces there with Article 5 NATO guarantees.”
Vice President JD Vance is likely to reiterate these points at the Munich Security Conference. Retired U.S. Army Lt. Gen. Keith Kellogg will likely echo them while sharing with European leaders Trump’s proposed peace plan for ending the war in Ukraine.
Yet security guarantees are central to bringing Ukraine to the negotiating table. After the failures of the Budapest Memorandum and Minsk I and II that resulted in Putin invading Ukraine in 2014 and again in 2022, Zelensky is unlikely to accept anything less than an ironclad U.S. or NATO security agreement — especially in exchange for $500 billion worth of Ukrainian rare earth minerals.
As Zelensky bluntly told the Guardian’s Shaun Walker, “Security guarantees without America are not real security guarantees.”
If Trump’s apparent self-defeating policy shift stands, Putin will undoubtedly be pleased. Trump, in effect, would be guaranteeing a Russian victory at the negotiating table that Putin’s armies have failed to win on the battlefield.
That would be ill-advised, as Trump himself would be getting strategically lost in a dense fog of his own making. But late Wednesday, there were signs of that becoming a reality. Trump announced in a Truth Social post that he had talked to Putin and had agreed to begin peace negotiations. Notably, Steve Witkoff now appears to have eclipsed Kellogg as Trump’s chief envoy.
The Middle East is just as hazy. Many of Trump’s comments about Gaza — including those made in front of Jordanian King Abdullah II Tuesday at the White House — are likely intended to get Washington’s Arab partners to participate actively in solving the Palestinian refugee crisis and ending direct and indirect support of Hamas.
And for now, Trump has been conspicuously quiet about China, despite imposing 10 percent tariffs on an array of Chinese goods. Beijing promptly reciprocated.
Last week, Trump met with Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba at the White House. Despite reassuring Japan of his commitment to protect Tokyo under the terms of Article 5 of the Japan-U.S. Security agreement — including the Senkaku Islands in the East Asian Sea — Trump was largely silent about China.
The canned language was present, including “peace through strength” and “Chinese economic aggression.” Yet no new military initiatives were announced, nor did he prod Japan to rescind Article 9 of its constitution, which outright bans an offensive military force.
Surprisingly, Trump appears hesitant to strike Iran’s nuclear weapons program, despite re-implementing his maximum pressure policy against Tehran. More fog? Perhaps.
Trump just approved Israel receiving the 2,000-pound bombs that Biden had suspended. These would be needed to strike Tehran’s nuclear enrichment facilities deep underground in Natanz and elsewhere in Iran. Reports also suggest the U.S. will release to Israel the 11-ton Massive Ordnance Air Blast, more commonly known as the “Mother of All Bombs” or just “MOAB.”
It is worth noting, however, that the fog of war works both ways. It can deceive and it can cover intent. Only time will tell whether Trump’s fog of war advances or impedes Washington’s national security objectives. This is especially true as China remains on the ascendency, Iran approaches nuclear breakout and the war in Ukraine rages on, unabated.
Mark Toth writes on national security and foreign policy. Col. (Ret.) Jonathan Sweet served 30 years as an Army intelligence officer.
