Historical trends suggest that President Trump should suffer a midterm setback in 2026. It is axiomatic that the party out of the presidency prospers in midterm elections.
But current trends offer a counterargument. And Sen. Gary Peters’s (D-Mich.) recent retirement announcement has made Democrats’ already deceptively difficult 2026 even more difficult.
Moreover, if there has ever been a president to buck trends, it is the man in the White House right now.
The history is clear: From 1938 through 2022, the president’s party has a record of only 2-20 when it comes to net-seat midterm outcomes. Only George W. Bush, back in 2002, saw a gain of seats in both the House and the Senate. In 2018, Trump suffered a dramatic 40-seat loss in the House that ushered in two years of hearings and investigations and two impeachments.
So why won’t the 2026 midterms hold to historical form for Democrats?
For one thing, the last two elections (2022 and 2024) have been disappointments to both parties when it comes to winning seats. In 2022, Republicans did not reap nearly the House windfall they expected, although they did narrowly win the House. In 2024, Democrats failed to flip it back.
One of the reasons for these recent bipartisan disappointments is that gerrymandering in the House has reached such an art form that there simply are not that many seats in play anymore. And as to 2026 specifically, the map is not as favorable to Democrats as it at first appears.
In the Senate, Democrats would seem to have an advantage because, of the 33 seats up in 2026, only 13 are held by Democrats. Republicans are defending the other 20. However, looking more closely, Democrats have three vulnerable seats to defend — those of Sens. Jon Ossoff (D-Ga.), and Jeanne Shaheen (D-N.H.) and now Peters’ open seat in Michigan. Trump just won both Georgia and Michigan in 2024, and he came within three points in New Hampshire.
Republicans have only two seats that could really be labeled vulnerable — those of Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine) and the open seat of Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.), assuming he retires. Collins has been an elusive target for Democrats for decades now. Kentucky, meanwhile, is a deeply red state that Trump won by more than 30 percentage points in 2024.
Trump also came within 10 percentage points of winning several states where Senate Democrats will be running in 2026: Sens. Cory Booker (D-N.J.), Ben Ray Lujan (D-N.M.) Tina Smith (D-Minn.) and Mark Warner (D-Va.)
Does that make these seats vulnerable? Not necessarily, but it should make Democrats cautious.
The House is numerically much more likely to flip because of Republicans’ precarious 220-215 majority. But again, appearances can be deceiving. Democrats were expected to flip the House in 2024 and did not. There are also 13 House Democrats who hold seats Trump won in 2024. There are also 46 House seats where Democrats won by 10 percentage points or less in 2024 — meaning that a mere 5-point swing could flip them.
And expect Trump himself to be a major factor in the 2026 midterms, just as he was eight years earlier. Note that Trump 2025 is much stronger than Trump 2017, at least for now. According to Real Clear Politics’ average of national polling, Trump has a net plus-four job approval and net plus-one favorability rating. In comparison, on January 29, 2017, Trump had a minus-8 favorability rating.
There are also regular polls that show Trump’s agenda is more than he is — which is to say, he could gain further as his agenda is more fully implemented.
Democrats are also arguably weaker than they have been since Obama won the presidency in 2008. Currently, they lack a leader and an agenda. If you don’t believe it, ask yourself what prominent Democrat would Democrat candidates want to put next to their picture in a campaign ad. Joe Biden? Kamala Harris? Tim Walz? Gavin Newsom?
The same applies to the Democrats’ agenda. The issues on which prominent Democrats vowed to oppose the incoming Trump administration — illegal immigration, electric vehicle subsidies, transgender surgeries, unrestricted abortion — were all losers in 2024 and will be again in 2026.
Trump also has a huge improvement over 2017 because he is following Biden this time instead of Obama. The latter was well remembered at the time. The former is now widely viewed as a failure.
Two years is a long time. But really, it is just 20 months. In politics, 20 months is tomorrow. And today, tomorrow doesn’t look all that good for Democrats.
J.T. Young is the author of “Unprecedented Assault: How Big Government Unleashed America’s Socialist Left.” He has more than three decades’ experience working in Congress, the Department of Treasury, the Office of Management, and Budget, and representing a Fortune 20 company.
