With less than five months until the June 24 primaries, New York City’s mayoral race is shaping up as a referendum on one thing above all else: name recognition.
You either have it, or you don’t.
And according to a new Manhattan Institute poll, only two contenders truly do: former Gov. Andrew Cuomo, who has not officially entered the race, and Mayor Eric Adams.
That might sound like good news for them — but in Adams’ case, it isn’t. The mayor is known, but not liked.
A staggering 71% of voters view him unfavorably; just 25% see him positively.
Cuomo remains polarizing, but competitive: 46% see him favorably, 49% unfavorably.
Meanwhile, New Yorkers are deeply dissatisfied with local conditions — with two-thirds of voters, 66%, believing that the city is heading in the wrong direction.
In our analysis, the likeliest scenario is an old-school matchup between Adams and Cuomo, two politicians who thrive on transactional politics, not left-wing purity tests.
But even if Adams falters in the primary, it may not be the last time the two face off.
Yes, even though both of them are Democrats.
We polled 618 registered New York City voters, weighted to reflect the likely 2025 mayoral electorate on gender, age, race and other factors, then studied the likely outcome of June’s primary with a simulated ranked-choice runoff.
Bronx Rep. Ritchie Torres, though seen to be aiming for Albany’s top job, is the race’s most interesting wild card. His relentless attacks on state progressives — and incumbents’ failures on crime and housing — have raised his profile. He’s known by 57% of voters and enjoys solid favorability among both Democrats (+26%) and Republicans (+28%).
A figure like Torres should, in theory, be the future of a competitive Democratic Party. For now, his presence merely highlights the weakness of the city’s progressive bench.
Despite their cultural clout, progressive candidates struggle to make an impression.
Comptroller Brad Lander and other left-wing hopefuls remain unknown to large swaths of voters. None of them notched more than 16% support in our Democratic primary simulation.
Our polling suggests that if Cuomo runs, he wins. He leads the first round of the Democratic primary with 30%, well ahead of Adams at 14%.
In our simulated ranked-choice primary, obscure progressives are eliminated in the early rounds, followed by former comptroller Scott Stringer and then Lander.
Come the final round, Cuomo beats Adams 53% to 47%. If this transpires, it would be the first time a sitting Democratic mayor loses a primary since David Dinkins unseated Ed Koch in 1989.
But Adams might have an escape hatch: If his standing among Democrats continues to crater, he could — extraordinarily — run as a Republican.
Under New York state’s Wilson-Pakula law, the city’s five GOP county committees could grant the mayor permission to appear on the Republican ballot.
That may sound far-fetched, but if President Trump blesses the idea, the county bosses might play ball.
Adams could position himself as the “law and order” candidate against Cuomo, in a general election where issues of crime and affordability will dominate.
For Trump, backing Adams wouldn’t just be about meddling in his hometown’s politics — it’d be a way to test his brand in deep-blue territory while driving a wedge between Democrats.
Adams’ crime-focused messaging already echoes Trump’s 2024 law-and-order playbook, and their shared opposition to progressive immigration policies could help Adams court disaffected moderates.
While some GOP power brokers might balk at embracing a longtime Democrat, the president’s inner circle has signaled openness to an alliance with Adams, who has attended multiple events alongside key Trump surrogates.
If Adams plays his cards right, he could turn Trump’s nod into a political lifeline — whether as a Republican nominee or as an independent with GOP backing.
Would that strategy work? Maybe not. A Cuomo-Adams matchup favors the former governor, whom our poll shows leading 50% to 27% in a general election hypothetical.
But Adams would have something no Republican candidate has had in decades: a real base.
More than 30% of New Yorkers citywide supported Trump last November. If Adams consolidates that support and picks off some independents, the city could see its first competitive general mayoral election in recent memory.
One group loses no matter what: the progressive left.
Whether the city ends up with Cuomo or Adams, its next mayor will reject defunding the police, free transit and other socialist experiments — a reminder that, despite their continued influence in intra-party battles, the Democrats’ left flank won’t have an acolyte in Gracie Mansion.
For now, the battle lines are drawn: Cuomo’s old-school machine politics versus Adams’s besieged incumbency.
New Yorkers, when faced with the choice between the unknown and the infamous, seem ready to go with the devils they know.
John Ketcham is a legal policy fellow at the Manhattan Institute, where Jesse Arm is the executive director of external affairs and chief of staff.
