The nonpartisan election handicapper Cook Political Report is rating 10 Democratic-held seats and eight seats held by Republicans as toss-ups ahead of the 2026 election.
The ten Democratic seats are represented by Reps. Adam Gray (D-Calif.), Derek Tran (D-Calif.), Jared Golden (D-Maine), Gabe Vasquez (D-N.M.), Laura Gillen (D-N.Y.), Don Davis (D-N.C.), Marcy Kaptur (D-Ohio), Emilia Sykes (D-Ohio), Vincente Gonzalez (D-Texas) and Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (D-Wash.).
The seats the Cook Political Report sees as most vulnerable for Republicans are those represented by Reps. David Schweikert (R-Ariz.), Juan Ciscomani (R-Ariz.), Gabe Evans (R-Colo.), Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R-Iowa), Tom Barrett (R-Mich.), Don Bacon (R-Neb.), Ryan Mackenzie (R-Pa.) and Scott Perry (R-Pa.).
“Though their majority is dangerously thin, in some ways, Republicans are starting out in a stronger position than they were in 2018. Trump’s latest victory was broad; he clawed back ground in suburbs that had lurched to the left since 2016 and made massive inroads in urban areas,” Cook Political Reports’ Erin Covey and Matthew Klein wrote.
“Almost all of the most competitive House districts moved to the right between 2020 and 2024 (Washington’s 3rd District was the lone exception),” they added.
The duo noted that they were bright spots for both parties. For Republicans, they could gain as many three seats given the party will have power over the redistricting process in Ohio. Meanwhile, more Democrats outperformed former Vice President Harris in November than Republicans did in competitive House seats with President Trump.
The National Republican Campaign Committee (NRCC) touted the handicapper’s analysis in a statement, with spokesman Mike Marinella saying, “The math is in our favor, and it’s clear House Republicans are on offense for 2026.”
“House Democrats are in shambles — they don’t have a clear message and they’re incapable of selling voters on their failed agenda. We will work tirelessly to hold the Democrat Party accountable and grow our Republican majority,” he added.
But with a slim majority in the House, Democrats only need to net three seats in order to flip the chamber. The party will likely also benefit from the traditional headwinds the party in power faces during midterm cycles, elections which are historically seen as a check on the party in the White House.
