These Yankees-Orioles head-to-head matchups will go a long way in deciding the AL East crown.
Unfortunately, New York’s bats have faltered during the season’s first series, as the Bronx Bombers managed only two runs in the first two matches – directly after dropping 36 in a three-game set at Milwaukee.
I can’t imagine the Yankee bats will wake up against Cy Young candidate Corbin Burnes, Baltimore’s starting pitcher Wednesday.
However, I’m willing to bet that New York’s starting pitcher will post another half-decent performance.
Yankees vs Orioles Odds
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yankees | +1.5 (-165) | +125 | o8.5 (-110) |
| Orioles | -1.5 (+140) | -150 | u8.5 (-110) |
Yankees vs. Orioles prediction
(6:35 p.m. ET, MASN)
Luis Gil first appeared in a major-league game in 2021. Unfortunately, Tommy John surgery sidelined him for nearly two full seasons.
While it was unlikely the 25-year-old would make the big league roster this year, Gil defied the odds, posting a monster spring training line (15 ⅔ IP, 2.87 ERA, 23 strikeouts) and earning a spot in the rotation.
Unfortunately, Gil’s main issue is command. He’s never managed to throw enough strikes, walking at least 11% of batters at every level of organized baseball, thus limiting him from becoming a consistent five-to-six-inning starter. His 93 Location+ mark ranks 195th of 208 starting pitchers this season, and his 59% strike rate ranks 189th.
Therefore, Gil carries a high WHIP (1.36 career across 58 MLB innings), and it’ll be hard to earn a sub-4.00 ERA with so many walks – he’s already issued 19 in 24 ⅔ innings this year.
All that said, Gil provides tremendous strikeout upside based on immense stuff.
The Stuff+ model grades his three-pitch mix very high (129 fastball, 116 slider, 108 changeup).
His hard, upper-90s heater has tremendous carry (17.3 iVB, 82nd percentile), and opponents can only swing under it (16% swinging-strike rate, 92nd percentile). It’s a monstrous, uphill, ultimately special major league four-seam fastball.
His changeup needs more work, but he’s inducing plenty of weak zone contact with the pitch, helping him create a few more strikes than before.
His slider has become an excellent finishing pitch (33% put-away rate, 88th percentile) primarily because of its surprisingly high velocity (87 mph) and how well it tunnels with his dominant fastball.
Gil’s arsenal has produced strikeout rates north of 30% at every minor league level, and he’s sitting at a ridiculous 32% mark through five starts this year.
His underlying metrics indicate this is sustainable (33% whiff rate, 92nd percentile; 14% swinging-strike rate, 82nd percentile), which has kept his expected statistics down (2.58 expected ERA, 87th percentile; .138 expected BA allowed, 99th percentile).
Ultimately, Gil’s shorter arsenal, tough stuff and command issues profile better as a reliever. But as long as he’s in the rotation, we should keep betting on his whiff potential.
Gil’s strikeout over/under prop sits at 5.5 in the markets, yet he’s eclipsed five Ks in every start this season, topping out with nine against Tampa and eight against Toronto.
His 1.5 strikeouts per inning rank in the 97th percentile of MLB pitchers this season, meaning he’s consistently reaching six punchouts in just four innings, which is still reasonable despite his pervasive control issues.
It’s tough to force whiffs against the ever-disciplined and hard-hitting Orioles. However, fellow Yankee starter Clarke Schmidt eclipsed his 4.5-strikeout over/under prop in 5 ⅔ innings against Baltimore on Tuesday, and A’s starter Paul Blackburn cashed his 4.5-strikeout prop in four innings the day before. Both of those pitchers provide less strikeout upside than Gil.
Gil’s upside is high because of his strikeouts, but his floor is low because of his command issues, making it very hard to handicap this game from a side or total perspective — imagine if we were trying to project how Rick Vaughn from “Major League” would perform.
However, I’m happy to put my money behind Gil in the prop market, especially when the projection systems I trust all peg him for over six strikeouts – SportsInsights at 6.6, Jon Anderson at 6.0 and RotoWire at 6.3.
Yankees vs. Orioles pick
Luis Gil Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-135, Bet365)
