Though the lower chamber will take time to call, a narrow GOP majority is most likely outcome
Less than 24 hours after the first polls closed in what was teased as one of the closest elections in U.S. history, the only thing standing in the way of a Republican trifecta in Washington, D.C., is the House.
The GOP secured a Senate majority just before midnight on Tuesday. Former president Donald Trump wrapped up his return to the White House shortly thereafter. But the House remains too close to call—and could for some time as votes trickle in from California and other West Coast states.
Still, Republicans have an advantage in the race for the lower chamber. They are likely to enter the 119th Congress with a narrow majority, much like the one they hold now.
As of early Wednesday afternoon, Democrats hold 193 seats, while Republicans hold 210, 8 short of a majority. The GOP has won a number of high-profile swing seats, with Ryan Mackenzie defeating three-term incumbent Democrat Susan Wild in Pennsylvania and Don Bacon holding on to his toss-up seat in Nebraska, denying Democrats a top flip opportunity.
Many of the outstanding toss-ups are in California, a state that takes a notoriously long time to produce results thanks to its reliance on mail voting and permissive election laws that allow for ballots to be counted one week after polls close if they are postmarked by Election Day.
That means eager House observers will likely have to wait days—if not longer—to see a majority officially confirmed. Still, House Republicans are bullish about their standing in the Golden State.
So far, the GOP holds leads in California’s 13th, 22nd, 27th, 41st, and 45th districts, all of which are considered some of the most competitive in the country. In the 27th, 41st, and 45th, roughly 70 percent of the vote is in, with Republicans leading by 2, 1, and 5 points, respectively. Close to half of the vote is reported in the 13th and 22nd districts, where Republicans lead by 3 and 10 points, respectively.
A clean sweep of those seats would be a nightmare for Democrats, whose path to a majority centered on California. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee put all five of the aforementioned districts on its “Red to Blue” list, the committee’s “highly competitive and tested program” that “equips top-tier candidates with organizational and fundraising support.”
One of the committee’s star recruits on that list, former federal prosecutor Will Rollins, was caught exaggerating his tough-on-crime bona fides and trails Republican incumbent Ken Calvert in California’s 41st. Another prized candidate, Derek Tran, said his GOP opponent was “not the right fit” for California’s 45th district because of her Korean-American heritage. That opponent, Michelle Steel, looks likely to win.
“We feel really good about where we’re at right now. We think we’re going to hold the majority,” a veteran GOP strategist told the Washington Free Beacon. “California seems to be breaking our way. It could end up being a net wash.”
All in all, election forecaster Decision Desk HQ projects (as of Wednesday afternoon) that Republicans will control 222 seats to Democrats’ 213. Right now, Republicans hold 220 seats to Democrats’ 212, with 3 vacant. Cook Political Report is also projecting a “narrow Republican House majority.”
While House Speaker Mike Johnson (R., La.) is not guaranteed to keep the gavel come January, he expressed confidence that he will do so. His message to his caucus going into leadership elections, which are scheduled for next week, is “keep your quarterback.”
“We’ve been working for a year … preparing this playbook that we’ll talk about all the time for the next Congress,” Johnson told Axios. “So if we’re going to … run those plays and execute them with precision, you got to keep the quarterback on the field and keep the same team.”
Asked whether the DCCC disagreed with forecasts that Republicans will retain the House, spokeswoman Lauryn Fanguen pointed the Free Beacon to a statement from House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (N.Y.) that said the “party that will hold the majority in the House of Representatives in January 2025 has yet to be determined.”
“We must count every vote,” said Jeffries.
