Is the NBA MVP Award decided in February or April?
Expect plenty of discourse over the season’s final few games as the NBA MVP race heats up between Luka Doncic and heavy favorite Nikola Jokic.
The Ringer’s Kevin O’Connor, an NBA Awards voter, tweeted, “I am strongly considering Luka Doncic for MVP,” while Mavericks players wore t-shirts with the words “Pravi MVP” (translated “Real MVP”) on them during pregame warmups Wednesday night against the Heat.
While he’s still a massive underdog, it appears the betting interest in Doncic is rapidly increasing as the season comes to a close.
Doncic was as high as 25/1 to win MVP at FanDuel Sportsbook as of Thursday morning and has since dropped to 21/1.
While O’Connor was just one of 99 voters for last year’s awards, his view is noteworthy since it shows that perhaps voters are re-considering Jokic’s lock status.
Doncic and Jokic both have incredibly compelling cases, even if the odds disagree. Each is posting more than 26 points per game, and they are averaging nearly a triple-double.
Luka Doncic vs. Nikola Jokic: MVP by the numbers
| Player | Pts. | Reb. | Ast. | True Shooting percent | Net rating | Usage rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luka Doncic | 33.9 | 9.2 | 9.8 | 61.7 | 5.8 | 35.5 |
| Nikola Jokic | 26.6 | 12.4 | 8 | 64.9 | 11.8 | 29.1 |
Jokic has always dominated the advanced stats and it seems like that will never change, thanks to his incredible shooting percentages and lack of turnovers despite a high usage rate.
But Doncic didn’t really enter the picture until the Mavericks went all in at the trade deadline, grabbing PJ Washington and Daniel Gafford in an otherwise quiet trade deadline.
Then the vote comes down to team success, where Jokic will have the clear edge.
The Mavericks are on an impressive upward surge to the tune of an 18-7 record since the All-Star Break, the third-best in the NBA, but the Nuggets hold the top spot at 20-5.
Denver is currently the No. 1 seed in the Western Conference.
As we have seen in years past, the vote comes down to narrative, and there was plenty of discourse being stirred up on the Doncic vs. Jokic debate on Thursday.
“It’s a bummer that it seems many of my colleagues decided this MVP race months ago and there’s not really even a discussion happening,” Fox Sports personality (non-voter) Nick Wright said in a post on X.
“Because Jokic v Luka right now should be as close as any race I can remember. Incredibly compelling arguments for both guys with 5 days left.”
Rob Perez, known as @WorldWideWob on X, responded in a tweet: “-3000 didn’t happen by accident.”
It certainly hasn’t, as most voters believed it was a foregone conclusion for most of the season once Joel Embiid went down.
Betting on the NBA?
But voters still have five days to change their minds, and Doncic is doing everything within his power to make that happen.
As a long shot wager, Doncic isn’t a bad speculative buy at 16/1 on BetMGM, as other books are already down to +700 odds.
But the 16/1 number might not last, at which point you would need much more public voter approval to buy into the Doncic hype at a price below 10/1 odds.
PICK: Small bet on Luka Doncic MVP 16/1 (BetMGM)
