Virginia is a bad football team.
The Cavaliers are 5-4. They’ve also posted a -27 net point differential against FBS squads, a -2.1 percent Net Success Rate (99th nationally) and a -0.12 Net EPA per Play margin (115th).
I wasn’t impressed when they won four of their first five games over FCS Richmond, Wake Forest (by one), Coastal Carolina and Boston College. They’ve won one of three since, with blowout losses to Clemson (by 17) and North Carolina (by 27).
Notre Dame has been dominant since that gross upset loss to Northern Illinois. The Irish have won seven straight by an average score of 44-10.
They’re the nation’s best defense by EPA per Play allowed, and they’ve been outstanding against the pass, ranking top-15 nationally in sack rate and interceptions.
Meanwhile, Virginia’s offensive line hasn’t held up well in pass protection (116th nationally in sack rate allowed), and quarterback Anthony Colandrea has thrown four picks over his past two games.
On the other side of the ball, the Irish boast an explosive rushing attack behind dual-threat quarterback Riley Leonard and ever-elusive running back Jeremiyah Love. That’ll play against Virginia’s front seven, which ranks 118th nationally in EPA per Rush allowed.
The pick: Notre Dame -22.5.
KANSAS STATE (-7.5) over Arizona State
Arizona State’s offense is one-dimensional. The Sun Devils rush at the 15th-highest rate nationally behind superstar running back Cam Skattebo.
But Kansas State boasts an elite front seven, ranking third nationally in Rush Success Rate allowed.
If you stop Skattebo, you stop the Sun Devils.
The situational spot screams Wildcats, who are fresh off a bye and looking to bounce back from a tough loss to Houston two weeks ago. They’re likely undervalued in the market after that flukey loss, given they out-gained the Cougars by over 120 yards.
Meanwhile, the Sun Devils are certainly overvalued. They’re 5-1 in one-possession games with a plus-7 turnover margin. Their luck should flip down the stretch.
Kansas (+2.5) over BYU
BYU is the most overvalued team in college football. It’s 5-0 in one-score games — including two walk-off wins in the past three weeks — behind a +10 turnover margin. The close game and turnover luck is bound to flip for the 9-0 Cougars.
Meanwhile, the Jayhawks are among the nation’s most undervalued teams. Kansas is 3-6 despite a +5.5% Net Success Rate (32nd nationally) and a +52 point differential, thanks to a brutal 0-5 record in one-possession games.
Betting on College Football?
But Kansas’ tough luck has started to flip just as Jalon Daniels has re-found his form. They’ve won two of their past three, dropping 40 points on Houston and Iowa State’s formidable defenses.
Behind lead running back Devin Neal and the dual-threat Daniels, Kansas is among the nation’s most dynamic rushing attacks (sixth nationally in EPA per Rush). I expect them to obliterate a hapless BYU front seven (106th in EPA per Rush allowed) that struggles to contain mobile quarterbacks.
The Jayhawks are also vulnerable in the front seven but have a half-decent secondary behind Mello Dotson and Cobee Bryant. That bodes well against BYU’s pass-happy attack, as the Cougars heavily rely on Jake Retzlaff’s questionable arm (16 big-time throws to 21 turnover-worthy plays).
Last week: 3-0. Ole Miss (W). Boston College (W). Utah (W)
2024 season: 19-12.
