When three in four voters feel the nation is headed in the wrong direction, the excrement will inevitably hit the oscillating cooling device at high velocity and with great force. The result will be a disastrous second term in the White House for Donald Trump.
There were way too many other signs of gloom and doom in the national Election Day exit poll. Two thirds of the voters judged the economy to be in bad or poor shape and almost half of them felt that they were in worse condition financially than they had been four years ago. The few voters who were positive about the economy supported Vice President Kamala Harris.
The many voters who expressed a sour view of the economy went for Trump, “bigly.” Worst of all, the Democratic nominee won only a bare share of the vote from the poorest members of the body politic.
This is a disturbing and depressing indicator for the modern Democratic Party, which FDR founded in the depths of the economic chaos and suffering of the Great Depression.
When times are bad, the electorate seeks out a strong leader who can tear the house down in the hope that someone will build it back on a firmer foundation. The exit poll demonstrates that American voters sought change and leadership, and Trump fit the bill for them. Fewer voters wanted consideration and judgment, but they did support the Democratic nominee for all the good it did her.
The failure of Democrats to aggressively address the economic anxieties of the hard working and cash strapped families doomed the Harris campaign. The increase in inflation in October certainly was a blow to Democratic efforts as voters headed to the polls.
The economy was a disaster for Democrats and the fight for reproductive rights didn’t help Harris as much as she had hoped.
There were more than twice as many voters who prioritized economic anxieties over abortion rights. There was barely more concern about the threat to reproductive rights than there was about the fear of immigration. Harris won two thirds of the pro-choice vote, but Trump won an even greater share of the anti-immigration vote.
Two thirds of the electorate supported abortion in all or most cases. The electorate was split down the middle over whether abortion should be legal in all situations or just in most cases. Trump finessed the issue expertly and got an even split from Americans who wanted legal abortion in most cases. The Democratic standard-bearer did decisively win the support of voters who favored legal abortion on all occasions.
Amazingly, President Biden won a larger share of women voters four years ago than Harris got this time around. There still was a gender gap, but Trump won a larger margin among men than Harris did among women. Trump secured the support of most white suburban women whom Harris hoped to win over with pro-choice appeals. These women were as much financially strapped consumers anxious about making ends meet as they were voters worried about their personal liberties.
So, instead of electing our first female president, we elected the nation’s first felonious president to the highest office in the land. President Biden could reverse this grave injustice by resigning before his term expires on Jan. 20 next year to allow his vice president to enjoy a brief presidency laden with hopeful symbolism and hope for women seeking their rightful place.
Demography is destiny. In 2024, Harris trailed Joe Biden’s 2020 electoral performance in every major demographic category.
The dramatic decline is Democratic presidential support was especially pronounced among Latino men, who shifted from a big 23-point Biden margin in 2020 to a 12-point Harris deficit four years later. Trump won first-time voters by 13 percent in 2024 after losing them to Biden by 32 percent in the last presidential contest. Americans want to change the status quo and they did.
These shifts in partisan support patterns are dangerous signs. A realignment towards the GOP and MAGA could occur if these trends freeze in place. So, Democrats must react quickly and decisively.
Shock and awe are the calling cards of the early days of the former failed president’s new regime. Trump’s first moves as president-elect — the nominations of former Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Fla.) as attorney general and Fox News host Pete Hegseth as secretary of Defense — demonstrate a contempt for the establishment that many Americans share.
These appointments clearly indicate that Trump is an extremist who wants to burn down the barn.
The late great Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives, Sam Rayburn (D-Texas) once said, “Any jackass can kick down a barn, but it takes a good carpenter to build one.” Voters elected a jackass this year, but they will be ready for Democratic carpenters to repair the damage after a few months of the bull in the China shop.
Trump will tear down the house piece by piece, but he isn’t constitutionally capable of rebuilding it. That gives Democrats the opportunity to raise the Phoenix from the ashes after the 2024 and 2026 elections and change the system. To get there, my party must vigorously contest a rigged economic system that rewards bankers and billionaires at the expense of long suffering and hardworking blue-collar families that always get the short end of the financial stick.
Realty sucks. But Democrats must confront it or pay the political price. Denial is not a river in Egypt, but it could be a disaster of biblical proportions for Democrats.
Brad Bannon is a Democratic pollster and CEO of Bannon Communications Research which polls for Democrats, labor unions and progressive issue groups. He hosts the popular progressive podcast on power, politics and policy, Deadline D.C. with Brad Bannon.
