Former President Donald Trump is predicted to win a decisive victory in the crucial swing state of Pennsylvania, according to a new poll.
Trump leads President Joe Biden by four points among Pennsylvania voters, Trump with 49% support and Biden with 45%, according to the latest poll from the Pennsylvania chapter of the American Association of Retired Persons (AARP).
Trump’s lead is even stronger among voters 50 and up, who made up more than half of the state’s voters in 2020, according to AARP Pennsylvania. The former president leads the incumbent 52% to 42%, the poll found.
“Pennsylvania voters over age 50 are a critical voting bloc that all candidates are competing for in this election,” said Bill Johnston Walsh, state director of AARP Pennsylvania.
“Pennsylvanians of all political stripes want leaders to protect Social Security and provide support for family caregivers. If candidates want to win, they should pay attention to the issues that matter to Pennsylvanians ages 50-plus,” Walsh said.
Large majorities of older Pennsylvania voters say candidates’ positions on Social Security, Medicare, and prescription drugs are important to their decisions. About 80% of voters 50 and up say a candidate’s position on Social Security is important.
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The former president also holds a strong 10-point lead among independents in Pennsylvania, according to the poll.
Other polls also show Trump with an edge over Biden in the Keystone State. Trump leads in the state by about two points, according to RealClearPolitics’ average of polls.
A Trump win in Pennsylvania would narrow Biden’s path to victory considerably.
In 2020, Trump lost Pennsylvania to Biden by just over 80,000 votes out of more than 6.8 million ballots. In 2016, he won the state, the first time Republicans had won Pennsylvania in a presidential election since 1988.
The former president also lost a slew of other battleground states: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, and Wisconsin. However, these swing states appear to favor Trump so far, although in some cases, his edge is within the margin of error.
Nationally, Trump leads Biden by just over a point, according to RealClearPolitics’ average of polls.
With the election just six months away, both Trump and Biden have ramped up their campaign strategies, with Democrats leaning into the abortion issue and Republicans doubling down on their attacks on the economy under Biden.
Trump is battling several court cases, one of which has kept him stuck in a Manhattan courtroom all day in recent weeks. He has scheduled rallies and other campaign events in the evenings, on weekends, and on Wednesdays when the court is not usually in session.
