Former President Trump leads President Biden in hypothetical head-to-head general election matchups in five of six key battleground states, new polling shows.
The New York Times/Siena College/Philadelphia Inquirer polling, conducted from April 28 to May 9, shows Trump leading Biden among registered voters in Pennsylvania (47 to 44 percent), Arizona (49 to 42 percent), Michigan (49 to 42 percent), Georgia (49 to 39 percent) and Nevada (50 to 38 percent).
The polling shows Biden leading in one state, Wisconsin (47 to 45 percent), among registered voters in the same hypothetical head-to-head between the two major parties’ presumptive nominees.
The results are similar among likely voters, with the difference between the two candidates moving only 1 or 2 percentage points in Arizona, Georgia, Nevada and Pennsylvania. Biden’s performance in Michigan, however, improves by 5 points among likely voters and he leads Trump in the state (47 to 46 percent). In Wisconsin, Biden loses his edge over Trump, who leads Biden among likely voters (47 to 46 percent).
When third-party and independent candidates are included in the poll, the results are similar. Trump leads Biden, with Robert F. Kennedy Jr. maintaining third place in Arizona (42 percent to 33 percent to 10 percent, respectively), Georgia (39 percent to 31 percent to 9 percent), Michigan (38 percent to 36 percent to 9 percent), Nevada (41 percent to 27 percent to 12 percent) and Pennsylvania (40 percent to 36 percent to 10 percent).
Trump and Biden are tied in Wisconsin among registered voters, with 38 percent each, and Kennedy receives 9 percent support.
The other third-party and independent candidates never receive more than 2 percent in any of the matchups, pollsters noted.
The results of the polls have not changed much since the last Times/Siena College polls conducted in October 2023, when Trump similarly led Biden in all five states except Wisconsin, where Biden had more support.
In the last several months, the Biden campaign has ramped up voter outreach efforts as Trump has at times been stuck in courtrooms, as he faces a mountain of legal battles.
The new polling included 4,097 registered voters in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. The margin of error is 1.8 percentage points, when the states are joined together. Each state’s margin of error ranged from 3.6 percentage points in Pennsylvania to 4.6 percentage points in Georgia.
