Now is the part of the election cycle where the various parts of the winning coalition scramble to take credit, engaging in whatever data and verbal gymnastics necessary to advance their pet issues. Meanwhile, the losers furiously point their fingers at anyone but themselves.
For Donald Trump and the Republicans, it’s an easier time. Winning solves a lot of problems and papers over differences. The problems will come in the future, though, if the GOP takes the wrong lessons from winning.
Fortunately, we have referenda across several states showing unambiguously the voters’ preferences — with zero polling statistical margin of error — as well as traditional polling to look at.
Inflation wrecked the Democrats and elected Trump. Other issues, like immigration, helped the former president, but inflation was the foundation of his victory.
In an earlier column, I explained why the issue was underestimated. The exit polls bolstered this, with 75 percent saying inflation was a “severe” or “moderate” hardship and the 22 percent in the severe column voting Republican at 74 percent. In the YouGov weekly benchmark, taken concurrently with the election, inflation was the number one issue overall and for independents.
The bottom line for Trump: Do NOT let inflation flare up.
Trump is taking a big risk with his tariff policy. Tariffs raise prices, period — the only question is, how much? Yes, bringing jobs to the U.S. matters. But unemployment is under 5 percent. Jobs are a big issue for some people, and not at all for millions of retirees. Inflation, on the other hand, is an everybody problem.
Perhaps the Chinese and foreign producers absorb some of the price hit. Perhaps the Chinese devalue their currency (which could obviate Trump’s tariffs entirely). Perhaps the Chinese retaliate by embargoing critical materials, leading to shortages and price spikes.
It is true that America cannot continue to rely on China for critical materials, batteries, pharmaceuticals and biologics. But Trump hardly needs to make the souvenir snow globe industry great again. If the Chinese want to live a 9-9-6 lifestyle so Americans can buy cheap oven mitts, I’m good with that.
Bumper sticker slogans work for campaigns but are bad policy. Trump needs to pivot to a thoughtful policy that bolsters American national defense and economic security while keeping the flow of replaceable consumer goods easy and cheap.
The pro-life movement, meanwhile, is the weakest link in the Republican coalition. For the last 20 years, they have focused their energy on judges, legislation and regulation — and ignored the voters. The result is that the public has moved decisively against most pro-life positions. While it is true that most Americans oppose unfettered abortion up through the ninth month, on practically every other issue, pro-life is on life-support.
According to an October YouGov survey with 9,000 respondents, voters oppose a total ban on abortion by 77 percent to 13 percent and a ban on IVF by 70 percent to 8 percent — some of the worst polling numbers on any issue. Voters support mifepristone access by 57 percent to 23 percent and oppose withdrawing federal approval of the abortion drug by 48 percent to 26 percent.
Even worse, right-to-abortion referenda keep winning in both Democratic and GOP states. In 2024, seven states passed state constitutional amendments solidifying the right to abortion, with three rejecting. If Trump’s percentage can be considered the baseline GOP-conservative-populist vote, huge numbers of Trump voters defected to vote pro-choice. Four Trump states approved right to abortion, with defections of at least 16 points in Montana, 15 points in Nevada and Arizona, and 10 points in Missouri.
Pro-lifers are celebrating a victory in Florida, where the pro-choice amendment failed to reach the 60 percent supermajority threshold. Of course, they still got swamped, by 57 percent to 43 percent. In every state, the pro-choice vote ran well ahead of the Trump vote.
Yet pro-lifers seem determined to wreck the Republican majority via as many congressional end-runs they can think of. After all, why would anyone want to advocate to voters in a democracy?
Trump should shut down all this nonsense. He did what they wanted: engineered the demise of Roe v. Wade. It should be up to them now to advocate and win at the ballot box.
The Democratic Party is as far left as ever on social issues, so the alternative to Trump is intolerable. Trump should call their bluff and tell them to get off their lazy posteriors and get the public on their side.
One clear opportunity for Trump is voting reform, particularly citizenship voting. In national polling, requiring photo ID is supported by 84 percent of voters and requiring proof of citizenship by 83 percent, both far and away more popular than any other voting reform tested.
Much more impressive has been the passage of state constitutional amendments banning non-citizens from voting. Over the past two cycles every amendment passed. Nine referenda were on the ballot in 2024 and they easily swept the field. Using the Trump vote as the conservative baseline, the amendments in just the swing states exceeded that vote, by 22 points in Wisconsin, 26 points in North Carolina and 25 points in Ohio. Strongly Democratic Colorado passed one in 2022 with 63 percent, 20 points over Trump’s 2024 result. That’s a lot of independents and Democrats.
While it is true that non-citizen voting for federal offices is prohibited, there is no evidence this is being enforced. With thousands of non-citizens found on the voter rolls in Virginia and Oregon, and one confirmed non-citizen voting in Michigan (yes, it’s just one, but when you don’t look for problems, you don’t find them), any guess how many there are nationally?
The states’ voter rolls are a mess, crammed not just with non-citizens and dead people but also voters who have moved jurisdictions. Personally, I know of two suburban Pennsylvania local GOP committees who found nearly 2,000 ineligible voters on the rolls due to the county simply not keeping up with change-of-address notifications. While there is no evidence that ineligible votes are being cast in widespread numbers, the opportunity for fraud is there and the stakes are high, so some fraud will eventually occur.
Trump and Republicans have a golden opportunity if they proceed intelligently. Trump should propose a nationwide audit of the voter rolls, followed by removal of ineligible voters. The audit is sure to reveal all kinds of problems, errors and plenty of ineligible voters on the rolls. Even better, a slice of the Democratic Party is sure to oppose this effort every step of the way — putting them decidedly on the wrong side of a popular issue.
And that’s how you play politics: Find a popular issue your opponents are on the wrong side of, set a series of traps and then spring them. For the GOP, there is the side benefit here of burying the notion that the Democrats are the protectors of democracy.
Trump has an opportunity to build a new, lasting political coalition. But if he makes the wrong moves, he will just hand power back to the Democrats. Donald Trump won because of President Biden’s utter incompetence and refusal to give the people what they want. Democrats are counting on Trump doing the same thing.
Keith Naughton is co-founder of Silent Majority Strategies, a public and regulatory affairs consulting firm, and a former Pennsylvania political campaign consultant.
