PALM BEACH—Former President Donald Trump’s campaign is circulating a memo describing a “massive turnout deficit” for Democrats on the eve of the 2024 election.
Tim Saler, the chief data consultant for Donald J. Trump for President, described how Trump and Republicans are reportedly outperforming past elections in early votes and absentee ballots in a memo sent to Trump campaign senior leadership on Monday.
“As we dive deeper into the data, Democrats are facing a precipitous decline in urban turnout according to their own ‘data experts’ and we are tracking an uptick in rural turnout,” Saler wrote.
He cited Barack Obama’s former campaign manager, Jim Messina, who described the early vote numbers as “a little scary” on MSNBC.
“The early vote numbers are a little scary,” said Messina, a 2012 Obama aide. “Republicans didn’t do what they did last time.
“Last time, Trump said, ‘Don’t early-vote,’ so they didn’t,” he added. “Republicans do have an advantage in early-vote numbers. When the early votes come in, it’s going to look a little bit different than 2020, and that’s scary.”
“What Mr. Messina is downplaying, is they are a lot scarier for Democrats,” Saler said. “According to NBC News, President Donald J. Trump has a 16-point lead (56-40) among voters who plan to cast their ballot on Election Day. Obama’s chief campaign strategist and CNN political commentator, David Axelrod, told CNN that there are no guarantees that voters will turn out on Election Day for Vice President Harris.”
“Democrats are spinning themselves and reporters by claiming that their voters will turn out on Election Day when polls show otherwise and, most importantly, that’s asking Democrat voters to do something they have absolutely no history of doing,” he added. “If Democrats, who historically vote ahead of Election Day, haven’t been motivated to show up for Kamala yet, why do we expect them to show up tomorrow?”
The memo emphasized confidence that Trump is heading into Tuesday “stronger than he has in any previous election.” But it also stressed that Republicans need to get out and vote for Trump.
Saler added, “if patriots across the country keep the momentum and turn out as expected on Election Day, we will be swearing in President Trump in January.”
The Harris campaign did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
