JACKSONVILLE, Fla. — Is Kamala Harris failing to connect in two southeastern battleground states she must win if she wants President Biden’s job?
That’s the argument being advanced by the Donald Trump campaign, which is pointing to dismal data for the Democratic cause from Georgia and North Carolina as proof a campaign that began with the motif of joy is culminating in the stench of division.
Grassroots data consultant Tim Saler asserts the “biggest and most important turnout day for the Harris campaign during North Carolina and Georgia early voting has come and gone with minimal impact on the electorate.”
For those unfamiliar with politics in the South, Saler is referring to “souls to the polls” efforts — mobilizations of black voters who have typically performed Democratic for 60 years.
This time around, there are cracks in the coalition, and they threaten the Harris ticket in its quest to wrest 16 electoral votes in North Carolina and Georgia each.
In the Tar Heel State, Saler says, “Republicans maintain a roughly 1-point lead in combined mail and early votes cast,” a sharp contrast to a 10-point Democratic lead in the last presidential cycle, and an 8-point edge in 2022’s midterm election.
Given that the last Democrat to win North Carolina was Barack Obama in 2008, these trends bode ill for the California Democrat.
“Republicans took the lead last week for the first time in the history of North Carolina early voting and continue to hold that lead as of today,” Saler says.
More than 2.82 million North Carolinians have voted through Sunday, 36% of eligible voters there, according to the State Board of Elections. Of those votes, 2.666 million were made in person.
Republicans have cast 961,871 ballots, equating to 41.25% turnout. Democrats’ 938,167 votes represent just 38.4% of their party.
The Peach State likewise is offering pits for Harris, argues Saler.
“In Georgia, turnout for this past Sunday’s voting was 15 percent lower than the first Sunday of early voting, an ominous sign for Harris’ ground game efforts. Furthermore, public polling indicates Harris continues to struggle with African-American voters while President Trump is set to shatter decades-old records for his share of their support.”
Trump is especially strong with black men in some polls, with more than 20% support — a trend few outside the former president’s political inner circle predicted this year.
Turnout is robust even with Democratic attrition over the weekend, again suggesting Republicans are outperforming expectations.
Georgia’s secretary of state announced Monday that 40% of those eligible (2,916,979) have already voted. To put that in perspective, never before have even 2 million ballots been cast at equivalent points in previous cycles.
But the increased volume is diluting black voters’ share, Saler says.
“After Sunday’s voting, African-American voters in Georgia presently make up just 26 percent of the mail and early votes cast in Georgia. At this point in 2020, they made up 29 percent of the vote, and at this point in 2022 they made up 30 percent.”
RealClearPolling shows Trump up 0.8 points in the average North Carolina survey and 2.3 in Georgia. The early data from election administrators suggest the Harris fade recent polls saw is continuing when the veep can least afford for it to happen.
