With much fan anticipation for the professional debut of newcomers Caitlin Clark and Angel Reese, the WNBA tips off its 40-game season on Tuesday.
There’s no better time than now to examine win totals and find value in the futures market.
Let’s take a look at the two finalists from a season ago while exploring a third team that could outperform its win projection.
New York Liberty Under 30.5 wins (-110, BetMGM)
The Liberty will try to take things one step further after going 32-8 in the regular season and losing to the Las Vegas Aces in the WNBA Finals last year.
Forwards Breanna Stewart and Jonquel Jones and guards Sabrina Ionescu and Courtney Vandersloot are all back with the team.
In addition, forward Kennedy Burke and guard Jaylyn Sherrod should provide depth on the bench.
Nevertheless, I still question whether this roster has enough interior presence.
As good as the Liberty were last season, they ranked in the league’s bottom half in points in the paint.
And in the finals, they struggled to contain the Aces’ frontcourt players.
New York can be too reliant on its perimeter shooting, leading to unexpected losses to lesser teams.
Given the overall improvement in talent around the league, the gap between the top and bottom teams isn’t as wide as it has been in recent years.
Look for the Liberty to take a slight step back and go under their win total of 30.5.
Las Vegas Aces Over 32.5 wins (-115, BetRivers)
The Aces run a top-notch organization led by general manager Natalie Williams and head coach Becky Hammon.
Much like the Liberty, the Aces’ core remains essentially intact, with A’ja Wilson, Chelsea Gray, Kelsey Plum and Jackie Young seeking a third straight title.
Nevertheless, the team’s offseason strategy revolved around adding further depth in the frontcourt with forward Emma Cannon and center Megan Gustafson.
Las Vegas shrewdly snatched up Gustafson, who was on the Liberty’s roster last season, which could further weaken New York on the interior.
As a result, the Aces are attempting to further distance themselves from their biggest competitor.
It’s tough to find any weaknesses on the Aces roster after they led the league in offensive and defensive efficiency while boasting a +15.3 net rating.
They were also a top-three shooting team on the perimeter and inside the paint.
If anything, they have gotten even better this season, and we should expect more of the same coming off a 34-win performance last year.
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Minnesota Lynx Over 16.5 wins (-140, BetMGM)
The Lynx’s win total suggests this roster has worsened since last season.
Nevertheless, Minnesota could be one of this season’s surprises.
There isn’t anything overly fancy about the Lynx, but they’re a team that is unlikely to beat itself.
Napheesa Collier has emerged as a bona fide leader, while Natisha Hiedeman should provide a much-needed threat on the perimeter.
Minnesota has a rich history in this league and is known for performing above expectations.
Much like the Timberwolves in the NBA, the Lynx are unlikely to receive much national coverage, which allows them to float below the radar.
This win total is short at 16.5, and while it’s slightly juiced to -140, it’s a play well worth considering.
