Control of the House has yet to be determined as a number of critical races remain too-close-to-call, leaving lawmakers — and voters — waiting to see which party will hold the majority next year.
The sprint to 218, however, is nearing the final stretch, after a handful of additional races were called in the days following election night.
Republicans had secured 216 seats in the lower chamber as of Friday morning, with Democrats trailing at 204 seats, according to Decision Desk HQ. A total of 15 races have not yet been called: Democrats are leading in nine of the contests while GOP candidates are ahead in the other six.
Republicans, nonetheless, are wasting no time in claiming victory even as the final tally remains unclear. Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) has said the House is poised to remain in GOP hands, and he has already launched his bid to retain hold of the gavel.
Democrats, meanwhile, are holding out hope that they could eke out a razor-thin majority. House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) on Thursday said “it has yet to be decided who will control” the House next year, pointing to ongoing ballot counting in Oregon, Arizona and California.
Several competitive House races have been called in the past couple days, including Rep. David Schweikert’s (R) reelection in Arizona’s 1st Congressional District; Rep. David Valadao’s (R) reelection in California’s 22nd Congressional District; April McClain Delaney’s election in Maryland’s 6th Congressional District; Rep. Andrea Salinas’s (D) reelection in Oregon’s 6th Congressional District; Rep. Julia Brownley’s (D) reelection in California’s 26th Congressional District; and Rep. Linda Sanchez’s (D) reelection in California 38th Congressional District.
Here are the uncalled races to watch in the quest for control of the House.
California’s 21st congressional district
Rep. Jim Costa (D-Calif.) is fighting for his political life in California’s 21nd congressional district in a race that has surprisingly emerged as a nail-biter this cycle.
Costa, a 10-term lawmaker, was leading Republican Michael Maher, a former FBI agent, by 1.1 percentage points — or 1,476 votes — at the time of publication, according to Decision Desk HQ, with 62.7 percent of the vote in.
The race was never expected to be close. The district broke for President Biden by 20.3 percentage points in 2020, and Cook Political Report said the seat was a “solid Democrat.” A victory by Maher would flip the district red.
The current margin contrasts with that from 2022, when Maher challenged Costa for the seat. That year, Costa won handedly by 8.4 percentage points.
California’s 9th congressional district
Rep. Josh Harder (D-Calif.) is locked in a tight race against Stockton Mayor Kevin Lincoln (R) in California’s 9th congressional district, a contest that is threatening to end the incumbent’s tenure on Capitol Hill.
Harder, who was first elected to the House in 2018, was leading Lincoln by 1.4 percentage points at the time of publication, with 56 percent of the vote reported.
A victory by Lincoln, who has served as mayor of Stockton since 2021, would be a boon for Republicans: Biden won the district by 12.6 percentage points in 2020, making the district reliably blue. Cook Political Report had rated the district “likely Democrat.”
California’s 47th congressional district
The race to succeed outgoing Rep. Katie Porter (D-Calif.) in California’s 47th congressional district is coming down to the wire, with Republican Scott Baugh, a former assemblyman, and Democratic state Sen. Dave Min running neck-and-neck for the seat.
Baugh, who previously served as the state’s Assembly minority leader and Orange County GOP chair, was leading Min by 0.2 percentage points — or 616 votes — as of publication, with 78.7 percent of ballots reported.
A Baugh victory would flip the seat red and mark the first time the district has a GOP representative since 2003. Biden won the district by 11.1 percentage points in 2020. Cook Political Report rated the district a “lean Democrat.”
Porter opted against running for re-election to vie for the Golden State’s Senate seat, which opened up after the late Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D-Calif.) died last year. Sen. Laphonza Butler (D-Calif.) temporarily filled the seat. Porter, however, lost to Rep. Adam Schiff (D-Calif.) in the Democratic primary.
Alaska’s at-large congressional district
Rep. Mary Peltola (D-Alaska) is fighting for political survival in Alaska’s at-large congressional district, where she is currently trailing Republican entrepreneur Nick Begich in the ranked-choice-voting state.
Begich was leading Peltola 49.6 percent to 45.5 percent with 74 percent of the vote in at the time of publication. Alaskan Independence Party candidate John Howe secured 3.9 percent and Democrat Eric Hafner pulled in one percent.
The lone Alaska district is one of a handful that President-elect Trump won in 2020, making it a key pick-up target for Republicans. That year, Trump beat Biden in the state by 10.1 percentage points.
Cook Political Report rated the race a “toss up.”
Arizona’s 6th congressional district
The race in Arizona’s 6th congressional district has become as close as it can be.
Former Democratic state lawmaker Kirsten Engel was leading Rep. Juan Ciscomani (R-Ariz.), a first-term lawmaker, by just 70 votes with 76 percent of ballots tallied. The two candidates were tied at 48.9 percent apiece.
The district is as purple as any can get: In 2020, Biden won the area by 0.1 percentage points.
Cook Political Report rated the race a “toss up.” The race is a rematch from last cycle, when Ciscomani narrowly edged out Engel by 1.4 percentage points.
California’s 13th congressional district
Rep. John Duarte (R-Calif.) is leading former Democratic state assemblymember Adam Gray in California’s 13th congressional district, but the closely watched race remains uncalled.
With 54.5 percent of the vote in, Duarte — a first-term lawmaker — was ahead of Gray by 2.8 percentage points.
The race has been one of the most closely watched contests this cycle, with Democrats hoping to pick off Duarte in the district after it broke for Biden by 10.9 percentage points in 2020 — a feat the party failed to achieve in 2022. That year, Duarte beat Gray by 0.42 percentage points — just 564 votes.
Cook Political Report rated this year’s race a “toss up.”
California’s 27th congressional district
Rep. Mike Garcia (R-Calif.) is slightly ahead in his race against Democrat George Whitesides, the former Virgin Galactic CEO who also served as NASA chief of staff during the Obama administration — but the numbers are tight.
Garcia, a first-term lawmaker, is leading Whitesides by 1.4 percentage points — or 3,240 votes — with 76.1 percent of the vote in.
A win by Garcia would let out a sigh of relief among Republicans, who were under pressure to defend the seat amid a strong Democratic effort. Democrats consider the district a top pick-up opportunity, citing the fact that it broke for Biden by 12.4 percentage points in 2020.
Cook Political Report rated the race a “toss up.”
California’s 41st congressional district
Rep. Ken Calvert (R-Calif.) is fighting tooth and nail to hold his seat in California’s 41st congressional district.
Calvert — a 30-plus year veteran of the House who is a cardinal on the Appropriations Committee — was leading Democrat Will Rollins, a former federal prosecutor, by three percentage points with 71.2 percent of the vote in.
The district has emerged as a key battleground. In 2020, it broke for Trump by 1.1 percentage points. Cook Political Report rated this year’s race a “toss up.
Calvert is currently running ahead by a smaller margin than his victory against Rollins in 2022. That year, he beat the GOP challenger by 4.6 percentage points.
Colorado’s 8th congressional district
Rep. Yadira Caraveo (D-Colo.) is hanging on in Colorado’s 8th congressional district by a slim margin against Republican state Rep. Gabe Evans.
Caraveo, a first-term lawmaker, led Evans by 0.8 percentage points with 79 percent of the vote in.
Cook Political Report rated the seat a “toss up.”
Oregon’s 5th congressional district
Rep. Lori Chavez-DeRemer (R-Ore.) is in danger of being defeated in Oregon’s 5th congressional district, where Democratic state Rep. Janelle Bynum is leading the incumbent.
Bynum was ahead of Chavez-DeRemer by 2.5 percentage points with 84.4 percent of the vote in. Independent Brett Smith earned 4.6 percent of the vote, Libertarian Sonja Feintech notched 1.5 percent, and Libertarian Sonja Feintech secured one percent.
A Bynum victory would flip the district blue in a huge success for Democrats, who zeroed in on the area after it broke for Biden in 2020. Chavez-DeRemer was one of the most vulnerable Republicans on the ballot this cycle. Cook Political Report rated the seat a “toss up.”
Washington’s 3rd congressional district
Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (D-Wash.) looked poised to squeak out a victory against Republican Joe Kent, staying on despite being one of the most vulnerable Democrats up for reelection this cycle.
Gluesenkamp Perez, a first-term lawmaker, was leading Joe Kent, a retired Green Beret backed by Trump, by 3.1 percentage points with 94.5 percent of the vote in.
Republicans had their eyes on the district after it broke for Trump by roughly four percentage points in 2020. In 2022, however, Gluesenkamp Perez defeated Kent by 0.82 percentage points.
This year’s race was rated a “toss up” by Cook Political Report.
California’s 49th congressional district
Rep. Mike Levin (D-Calif.) is close to securing another two years in Congress, though the race has not yet been called as more ballots are counted.
Levin, a three-term lawmaker, was leading Republican business owner Matt Gunderson by 2.2 percentage points as of publication time, with 77.4 percent of the vote accounted for.
Cook Political Report rated the seat a “lean Democrat,” which sits in a district that Biden won by 11.4 percentage points in 2020.
California’s 6th congressional district
Rep. Ami Bera (D-Calif.) is poised to win another term representing California’s 6th congressional district, as he is leading Republican Christine Bish by a healthy margin.
With 45 percent of the vote in, Bera, a sixth-term lawmaker, was leading Bish, a small business owner, by 13.7 percentage points, though the race had not yet been called by Decision Desk HQ.
California’s 39th congressional district
Rep. Mark Takao (D-Calif.) is likely to win another term on Capitol Hill, though votes are still being tallied in California’s 39th congressional district.
As of Thursday evening, Takano led Republican business owner David Serpa by 10.6 percentage points with 60.8 percent of the vote reported.
California’s 45th congressional district
Rep. Michelle Steel (R-Calif) has a healthy lead against Democrat Derek Tran, though the race has not yet been called.
With 74.7 percent of the vote in, Steel, a two-term lawmaker, was ahead of Tran, a consumer rights attorney, by 3.8 percentage points.
The district is one of the 17 areas Biden won in 2020 that are currently represented by a Republican, making it a top pick-up target for Democrats. Biden won the area, which includes Orange and Los Angeles Counties, by 6.1 percentage points in 2020. Cook Political Report rated the seat a “toss up.”
Updated at 10:15 AM
