The truth about the ‘veepstakes’

The race is on. Even though we have known for a while the 2024 race would be a rematch of 2020, it’s official now. Next up for the campaign cycle — the “Veepstakes.”

It’s as regular as the Olympics, coming around every four years. As we prepare to enter this part of the campaign cycle, let me offer some insight from someone who was right in the middle of the VP selection process in 2016 and knows how this typically works.

First things first — regardless of party, people do not vote for the bottom of the ticket. They vote for the presidential candidate. This is not to suggest a VP nominee cannot influence or support a vote for the presidential candidate, but voters do not go into the polls and say, “I’m voting for [insert name] for vice president.”

Second, while, of course, they need to be ready to serve and someone the presidential nominee can work with should they be elected, every vice presidential candidate for the past 40 years, regardless of party, has filled a perceived need in the campaign of the president.

Demographic: targeting someone primarily for their race, religion, or gender (Kamala Harris, Black and Asian American; Joe Lieberman, Jewish; Geraldine Ferraro, first female major party vice presidential candidate) or an older candidate trying to inject youth and vitality into their campaign (George H.W. Bush selected Dan Quayle, 41; John McCain picked Sarah Palin, 44).

Geographic: trying to secure or flip a key state/region (Lloyd Bentsen of Texas, John Edwards of North Carolina, Al Gore of Tennessee and Tim Kaine of Virginia).

Unite the Party: many examples exist of candidates trying to win over or soothe various factions of their party (George H.W. Bush with New England moderate Republicans, Mike Pence with evangelicals, and Paul Ryan and Jack Kemp with fiscal conservatives).

Policy/experience: this is often used by campaigns to offset their opponent’s experience and remove a level of attack against the top of the ticket (George W. Bush picked former Defense Secretary Dick Cheney, Barack Obama chose then-Senate Foreign Relations Chairman Joe Biden). Let’s be honest. Obama didn’t select Biden because he needed to win over old white guys or Delaware. He picked Biden because he was running against John McCain, and he needed someone with foreign policy credentials since, at the time it had been only seven years since 9/11, and Obama had been in the Senate only a few years.

Of course, most of these candidates filled more than one of those roles, but you get my point.

Third, vice presidential candidates have only five key responsibilities in the campaign. 

One, win your rollout. That means knowing your record and being ready to respond quickly to your opponent’s and the media’s attacks. 

Two, deliver a great convention speech. You may have just a week to write, practice and deliver that speech, while at the same time doing job No. 1, but you must nail it.

Three, win the vice presidential debate.

Four, raise money. That goes without saying in politics.

Five, don’t mess up. For the three to four months between the nomination and the election, the media really doesn’t care much about you, aside from the debate, unless you make a misstep or show any distance between yourself and the presidential candidate.

So, now that we have the basics of who, the next question is when the president should name his VP candidate. Typically, campaigns introduce their pick shortly before their party’s nominating convention. There are many reasons for this. The biggest reason is the VP costs a lot of money to the campaign. Our chartered 737 in 2016, nicknamed Trump Force Two, cost millions. The vice presidential nominee also needs a support staff, which can easily number more than 20 people. The VP’s campaign events don’t come free. Each stop requires a venue, lighting, media platforms, hotels and staging. Those cost money.

There is also rule No. 5 from above, don’t mess up. The longer the VP nominee is on the campaign trail, the greater the chance they will make a misstep.

So, those are the basics of the “Veepstakes.” I know it’s fun to speculate. But remember, this pick is usually made based on who can bring something to the presidential campaign that it thinks it needs or wants. A nominee who excites their base voters is a benefit, but the presidential candidate has already won their base.

Marc Lotter served as press secretary to vice presidential nominee Mike Pence during the 2016 campaign and as special assistant to the president and press secretary to the vice president in the White House in 2017. He later served as director of strategic communications for the 2020 Trump-Pence campaign.