In the aftermath of the Oct. 7 Hamas massacres, Israel’s National Unity party, led by Benny Gantz and Gabi Eisenkot, both former Israel Defense Forces chiefs of staff, joined the Netanyahu government and the war cabinet.
Many breathed a sigh of relief — it was felt that at least now there were adults in the room and critical decisions about the war would be made by the war cabinet, not simply by the Israeli far right. The voting members of the war cabinet were Netanyahu, Defense Minister Yoav Gallant and Gantz. Eisenkot and Strategic Affairs Minister Ron Dermer were “observers.”
Last night, after nearly eight months — and a one-day delay due to the rescue of four Israeli hostages on Saturday from Gaza — Gantz, Eisenkot and the National Unity Party withdrew from the coalition.
It is debatable how much of a “moderating” influence on the actual conduct of the war they were, but Gantz and particularly Eisenkot were increasingly vocal in their opposition to Netanyahu — and accused the prime minister of putting his personal interests ahead of the country’s.
Two weeks ago, just three days after Defense Minister Yoav Gallant publicly chastised Netanyahu for failure to plan for the “day after,” Gantz laid down the gauntlet to Netanyahu: Either come up with a credible “day after” plan, including a hostage deal, by June 8 or the National Unity Party would bolt the coalition.
Then, on May 31, came Biden proposals, which were approved by the war cabinet and which offered a stage-by-stage road map for a path forward — but which remained sufficiently vague to enable multiple interpretations. As of now, Hamas has not even conditionally accepted the Biden proposals.
The quandary the Biden proposals created for Gantz and his party has now been resolved. Gantz came under pressure from the U.S. and particularly from the families of those still held hostage in Gaza not to withdraw from the coalition for fear that, without internal pressure, Netanyahu would reject the Biden proposals — or even, in the words of one member, “give up” on the hostages, regardless of what Hamas does.
In this sense, the hostage families are correct. The greatest impact the National Unity Party’s resignation from the government will have is in whether Netanyahu will even bring the deal to a vote in the cabinet or Knesset.
There is a clear majority in both the full cabinet and Knesset for a hostage deal, even without the National Unity Party in the coalition. There are now 32 ministers in the Israeli cabinet — fully one half of the 64-seat governing coalition. Only six cabinet members represent extreme right-wing parties that do not support a hostage deal. 19 cabinet members are from Netanyahu’s Likud Party and seven are from ultra-Orthodox parties, which support a hostage deal. So, while some Likud cabinet members might be allowed to vote against a deal, Netanyahu has a comfortable majority in the cabinet.
In the Knesset, the votes for the Biden proposals are overwhelming. Most opposition parties have guaranteed Netanyahu a “safety net” in a vote on a hostage deal and cease-fire (but not thereafter). The Biden proposals would have at least 75 to 85 votes, possibly as high as 96 votes, in the Knesset (some secular right-wing opposition parties, like Yisrael Beiteinu and New Hope, might vote against a deal).
But it is also clear that, following a vote on the Biden proposals, Netanyahu would face a no-confidence vote that he would lose. There are 14 far right-wing members of the coalition led by Itamar Ben Gvir (Otzma Yehudit) and Bezalel Smotrich (Religious Zionism) who have vowed to bring the government down. The opposition has 56 seats — all of whom want to see Netanyahu out. A no-confidence vote would win easily, setting up new elections within five months.
The question is: Will Netanyahu bring any form of the Biden proposals to a vote, given that doing so would bring down his coalition? Perhaps Netanyahu just agreed to address a joint session of the U.S. Congress on July 24 because he expects to be in campaign mode by then?
Gantz had no real option other than to resign from the government to retain any credibility with Israeli voters. Nonetheless, the votes are there to approve the Biden proposals, which should be brought to a vote irrespective of Hamas.
Will Netanyahu rise to the occasion and put the hostages and the country’s interests ahead of his own? The record, unfortunately, says no.
Jonathan D. Strum is an international lawyer and businessman based in Washington and the Middle East. From 1991-2005, he was an adjunct professor of “The Israeli Legal System” at Georgetown University Law Center.
