Businessman and former Navy SEAL Tim Sheehy (R) has defeated 3rd-term Sen. Jon Tester (D) in Montana, expanding the Senate Republican majority set to take over next year.
Sheehy’s victory was announced after businessman Bernie Moreno defeated veteran Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) in Ohio, giving Republicans at least a 52-seat Senate majority, depending on the outcome of other races in Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
Sheehy had led Tester in the polls for weeks in a state that former President Trump won in 2016 and 2020 and is expected to win again this year by double digits.
Montana was widely seen as Republicans’ best pickup opportunity outside West Virginia, and Sheehy’s projected victory likely gives the GOP control of at least 51 Senate seats, barring an upset victory by independent Dan Osborn over Sen. Deb Fischer (R) in Nebraska or a surprise win by Rep. Colin Allred (D) over Sen. Ted Cruz (R) in Texas.
Republicans easily won retiring Sen. Joe Manchin’s (I-W.Va.) seat on Tuesday when Gov. Jim Justice (R) defeated his little-known Democratic opponent, Glenn Elliott.
The Montana Senate race got nasty in the final weeks as Tester and his Democratic allies raised questions about Sheehy’s claim that he was shot in a firefight in Afghanistan in 2012. Sheehy’s account of how a bullet came to be lodged in his arm was undermined by the revelation earlier this year that he told a park ranger that he accidentally shot himself in the parking lot of Glacier National Park.
Tester and the Democratic super PAC, Senate Majority PAC, launched attack ads at the end of the campaign raising questions about Sheehy’s injury and his integrity.
Democrats also raised questions about how he financed an aerial firefighting business with $160 million in municipal bonds after a large chunk of the money went to Blackstone Group, a private equity firm in New York.
Tester, meanwhile, emphasized his roots in the state as a “third-generation dirt farmer from Big Sandy,” at one point quipping in the campaign that he has farm equipment that’s been in Montana longer than his opponent, who is originally from Minnesota.
He also tried to distance himself from the Biden-Harris administration throughout the race, at one point grilling Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas at a Senate hearing over the administration’s failure to secure the U.S.-Mexico border.
But it wasn’t enough to overcome what’s expected to be a large margin of victory for Trump over Vice President Harris at the top of the ticket.
Sheehy and Republican groups attacked Tester throughout the race for accepting campaign contributions from lobbyists, highlighting to voters that he was one of the biggest recipients of lobbyist cash in D.C.
They also tied Tester to Harris and what they called her “radical” policies.
Sheehy has an impressive résumé as a Navy SEAL who served in Iraq and Afghanistan and earned the Bronze Star with Valor for carrying an injured comrade away from enemy fire and a Purple Heart for being injured by an IED explosion.
He founded Bridger Aerospace in Montana in 2014 and claims to have created over 200 jobs in the state. He also has a 20,0000-acre cattle ranch.
Sheehy was one of National Republican Senatorial Campaign Committee Chairman Steve Daines’s (R-Mont.) top recruits for the 2024 election cycle.
Daines scored a coup by persuading Trump to endorse Sheehy in February, paving the way for him to win the Republican nomination and effectively shutting out conservative Rep. Matt Rosendale (R-Mont.), who lost to Tester in 2018 and wanted a rematch.
Tester had won close races before. He triumphed in his first campaign for the Senate with 49.16 percent of the vote, edging out incumbent Republican Sen. Conrad Burns (Mont.) in 2006, a wave election for Democrats during President George W. Bush’s second term.
Tester beat Rosendale by a narrow margin 2018, though the Republican lawmaker was generally viewed as a weak candidate because of his far-right views and the fact that he was born in Baltimore and graduated from high school on Maryland’s Eastern Shore. Tester won that race by 3.5 points.
Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) and the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee stuck with Tester despite growing skepticism in Washington that he could win in a state that Trump was projected to win by a nearly 20 points.
Democratic groups spent $48 million opposing Sheehy while Republican groups spent $50.1 million opposing Tester as of mid-October, according to the Montana Free Press.
