Quinyon Mitchell among two best bets for NFL draft’s cornerback market

The 2024 NFL Draft is less than a week away, which means it’s time to lock in some plays.

One overlooked position group is offering value in the first round on Thursday night. Let’s take a look at a couple of best bets surrounding the cornerback markets. 

First cornerback selected odds

Why Toledo’s Quinyon Mitchell is our pick

In the transfer portal/NIL era of college football, it’s becoming increasingly rare for top prospects to hail from a Group of Five school, but Quinyon Mitchell is a bit of a unicorn in this regard.

Not only did he dominate the MAC for the majority of his four-year career, but at the combine he also tested better than just about any player in this entire draft class.

This makes him a great bet to be the first corner to come off the board, perhaps as early as the middle of the first round. 

Let’s start with his statistical accomplishments in the Glass City, where he set the school record for pass breakups with 46.

Last fall, he broke up 1.46 passes per game, ranking second nationally. On its face, that’s an impressive accomplishment, but what makes his disruptive play in the secondary even more noteworthy is that he only committed one penalty in the past two seasons.

That speaks to his technique, ball skills and athleticism. 

Speaking of his athleticism, his RAS (Relative Athletic Score) numbers are off the charts.

At 6-foot, 195 pounds, he ran a 4.33 40-yard dash and recorded a 38-inch vertical at the combine. His 9.75 (out of 10) RAS put to bed any concerns that he would be overmatched making the jump from MAC competition to the NFL.

His performance at the Senior Bowl, particularly the practice sessions, also confirmed to scouts that he could handle the physicality of Power Five receivers.

The one knock on Mitchell was that he played a lot of off-coverage at Toledo, but he thrived in man-to-man in Mobile and demonstrated that might be able to elevate his game even higher at the pro level. 

Pro Football Focus graded him north of 91.5 (out of 100) the past two seasons, and as a result, he became the first Rocket since 1971 to be named an All-American in back-to-back seasons.

According to the NFL Mock Draft Database, which aggregates more than 1,100 mocks, he’s coming off the board by the 15th pick on average, linking him to Indianapolis in the majority of cases.

Alabama’s Terrion Arnold remains the only real threat to hear his name first in this crop of corners, but his speed numbers (8.37 RAS) ultimately hamstring his likelihood of leapfrogging Mitchell.

While I think Mitchell will be drafted in the top half of the first round, the better bet is to target him to be the first cornerback selected.

His draft position is sitting at 15.5 in the market but is heavily juiced on the under (-160).

A sharper play is to grab him in the -125 to -150 range to be the first corner selected.

Position of Eagles’ first player drafted odds

Why Eagles will select a cornerback first

This is a perfect intersection of need and “best player available.”

Given where the Eagles are drafting in the first round (No. 22), there’s a high likelihood that Clemson’s Nate Wiggins, Alabama’s Kool-Aid McKinstry and Iowa’s Cooper DeJean will still be on the board.

The Birds were dreadful against the pass last year, allowing opposing quarterbacks to achieve a 97.6 QBR (29th), while finishing 28th in both EPA per dropback and PFF’s team coverage grade.

Betting on the NFL?

Not only could they use a talent upgrade at corner, but both entrenched starters are in their 30s (Darius Slay Jr., James Bradberry), which is borderline ancient by NFL standards.  

More than 50 percent of current mock drafts link the Eagles with a cornerback in Round 1, making plus money on this pairing a value proposition.

I would play this all the way down to +110.