We have a full slate of games for Friday in Major League Baseball, with all 30 teams in action.
Let’s take a look at some player prop bets to target as we head into the weekend.
Friday’s best MLB player prop bets
Jared Jones over 6.5 strikeouts (-134, FanDuel)
Pirates rookie Jared Jones has had an electric start to his MLB career, posting a 2.63 through his first seven starts. He owns an elite 33.8% strikeout rate against just 3.2% walks.
Jones has racked up 52 strikeouts in just 41 innings pitched, and his 18.7% swinging strike rate is the best among all starting pitchers. He has tallied at least seven strikeouts in six of his seven starts.
Today, Jones gets a home matchup with the Chicago Cubs, who have been a league-average offense with a 101 wRC+.
The Cubs have also struck out at the 11th-highest rate (23.6%) in MLB.
If we break down their performance when facing right-handed pitching, their wRC+ falls to a below-average 94, and their strikeouts are up at 24.1% – 8th-highest in baseball.
The Pirates righty is coming off a 7-inning, 10-strikeout performance against the Rockies, and finds himself in another great spot. I think he goes over 6.5 strikeouts for the seventh time in eight chances.
Framber Valdez under 5.5 Strikeouts (-130, Bet365)
Astros left-hander Framber Valdez has made just four starts so far this season, as an IL stint for elbow inflammation cost him a couple of starts in April.
He has been mediocre in his four starts, posting a 3.97 ERA, with 20.4% strikeouts and 7.5% walks. The ground ball rate that has been his calling-card over his career still sits at a healthy 58.7%.
Valdez has never been an elite strikeout pitcher, as he has relied heavily on ground balls to produce outs. He owns a 23.3% strikeout rate in his career that places him right around league average.
The Astros lefty is coming off a rough outing against the Mariners, in which he allowed five runs and recorded only three strikeouts. For context, the Mariners have struck out at the highest rate (28.7%) in baseball this season.
Today, Valdez gets a matchup against the Tigers, who have been a below average offense with a 90 wRC+.
They have performed better against left-handed pitching, as their wRC+ is up at 97.
They also have a fairly wide split in their strikeout rate, as they have whiffed at 24.7% versus right-handed pitching, compared to only 22.0% against left-handed pitching.
Valdez has not quite been himself this season, and I think he stays under 5.5 strikeouts for the fourth time in five starts.
Cole Irvin under 3.5 Strikeouts (-112, DraftKings)
Cole Irvin has been excellent for the Orioles so far in 2024, as he has posted a 2.86 ERA through his first six starts.
Advanced metrics are not as kind and suggest we may see some regression over the remainder of the season.
SIERA (4.14) and xFIP (3.97) both agree Irvin is closer to a league-average starter than the excellent one he has been to this point.
The strikeout rate for Cole Irvin sits well-below league average at just 16.1%, and his swinging strike rate is a paltry 6.1%.
Additionally, he gets one of the toughest strikeout matchups a left-hander can face.
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The Diamondbacks have been the best offense in baseball against lefties so far this season, with a league-leading 145 wRC+.
They have only struck out at 16.9% versus left-handed pitching, which is the second-best mark in MLB.
Irvin has gone over 3.5 strikeouts in four of his six starts, but the expected regression to his run prevention, low-strikeout rate, and extremely difficult matchup should keep him under that number today.
