Lane Kiffin finally built a defense in Oxford.
All the transfers hit.
Princely Umanmielen, JJ Pegues, Walter Nolen and Jared Ivey make up the best defensive line in college football, while linebacker Chris Paul Jr. is playing elite second-level football in coverage and against the run.
The Rebels’ front seven ranks first nationally in Havoc, second in sack rate and fourth in passes defended.
Six players have generated at least 20 pressures this season, and five have multiple pass break-ups.
You can’t run on the Rebels, who rank among the top 10 FBS defenses in Rush Success Rate and EPA per Rush allowed.
Meanwhile, Georgia’s offense has looked shaky — the Bulldogs have dropped outside the top 50 nationally in EPA per Play.
Part of the issue is a mediocre rushing attack, and part of it is a receiving corps sorely missing Brock Bowers.
Nevertheless, the biggest issue might be quarterback Carson Beck, who’s regressed from last season. He’s struggling to handle pressure — he’s completed just 36 percent of his passes in 66 broken pockets with four interceptions on seven turnover-worthy throws.
Ole Miss will bring plenty of pressure, and I’m banking on Beck and the Bulldogs flailing under that pressure.
Also, I’m hoping we get the “good” Jaxson Dart in a desperation spot—the Rebels need a win Saturday to keep their College Football Playoff hopes alive. Meanwhile, the Bulldogs can probably lose one more game and still sneak into the 12-team field.
The pick: Ole Miss +2.5.
BOSTON COLLEGE (-2.5) over Syracuse
I’ve enjoyed watching and betting on the Orange this season.
I like their pro-style offense led by quarterback Kyle McCord and tight end Oronde Gadsen, and I love running back LeQuint Allen.
But it’s time for the Orange bubble to burst.
They have won six of eight this year despite posting -0.16 net yards per play.
They’re 4-1 in one-possession games and 2-0 in overtime, which includes a 38-31 OT victory over Virginia Tech last week in a game the Orange were out-gained by 45 yards.
Some of that close-game luck is bound to flip.
Saturday is a good spot considering the Orange should be gassed after last week’s extra-time battle, while Boston College enjoyed a bye week — the Eagles haven’t played in 15 days.
The Eagles have had an up-and-down year, but some of that has hinged on the health of quarterback Thomas Castellanos.
When 100 percent, he’s among the most explosive quarterbacks in football, especially on play-action passes.
Syracuse’s defensive line is mediocre at best, which should allow Boston College to establish the run and then burn Syracuse’s hapless, lifeless secondary on Castellanos play-action darts.
UTAH (+3) over Byu
BYU is 3-0 in one-possession games, +7 in net turnovers, and 15-for-18 on fourth-down conversions.
The Cougars are good. There’s no way they should be 8-0. And they should eventually lose a game.
Why not Saturday against Utah?
Betting on College Football?
Sure, the Utes’ offense is severely limited without quarterback Cam Rising.
But they can still somewhat run the ball, which hopefully plays against a BYU defense that ranks 106th nationally in EPA per Rush allowed.
I’m primarily banking on Utah leaning on its elite defense (ninth nationally in EPA per Play allowed, seventh in EPA per Pass allowed) to show up and keep it close at home against an overvalued pass-happy BYU squad.
For what it’s worth, Kyle Whittingham’s Utes are 37-26 ATS as an underdog since 2005.
Last week: 2-0. SMU (W). Minnesota (W)
2024 season: 16-12.
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Tanner McGrath has been a professional sports handicapper since 2018. Specializing in college sports and baseball, he’s a diehard fan of the Vermont Catamounts, the Miami Marlins and any home underdog. He found himself on the wrong side of the Miami Miracle in 2018, but made up for it four years later by hitting a 40/1 long shot on Sandy Alcantara to win the NL Cy Young.
